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Crude Futures Rangebound but Backwardation Strengthens

OIL

Crude futures continue to drift lower from a WTI high of $79/bbl yesterday with prices rangebound amid offsetting risks. The Brent prompt time spread has however today rallied to the highest since October ahead of the Apr24 contract expiry tomorrow.

  • Market focus has shifted more to upside risks with a possible OPEC+ cut extension and ongoing Red Sea shipping disruption.
  • The rally in crude time spreads this month is suggesting a tighter market due to disruption global flows but upside has been limited with no outright loss in supply.
  • US physical crude prices have strengthened in recent weeks as buyers look to US grades to avoid the Red Sea shipping issues although US crude stocks have built in recent weeks amid refinery outages.
    • Brent APR 24 down -0.9% at 82.87$/bbl
    • WTI APR 24 down -1.1% at 78.04$/bbl
    • WTI-Brent down -0.07$/bbl at -4.83$/bbl
    • Brent APR 24-MAY 24 up 0.05$/bbl at 1.04$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.13$/bbl at 3.36$/bbl
    • WTI APR 24-MAY 24 down -0.01$/bbl at 0.63$/bbl
    • WTI JUN 24-DEC 24 down -0.11$/bbl at 3.62$/bbl



Source: Bloomberg

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