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Free AccessCrude Higher After Saudi Plan Additional Output Cut in July
Crude is edging higher although down from a spike up to over 78.6$/bbl after Saudi Arabia pledged an additional 1mbpd voluntary production cut in July. The move came after the weekend OPEC meeting at which other members pledged to extend existing cuts until the end of 2024. UAE secured a higher quota for next year as the lower targets for Russia, Nigeria and Angola represent little change in actual output with targets brought into line with current production levels.
- Brent AUG 23 up 1.5% at 77.25$/bbl
- WTI JUL 23 up 1.6% at 72.87$/bbl
- Gasoil JUN 23 up 1.3% at 704.5$/mt
- WTI-Brent unchanged at -4.29$/bbl
- Upside moves in crude have been limited by concerns for the impact of persistent inflation on US Fed policy and uncertainty over the recover in oil demand in China. China’s Caixin services and manufacturing PMI for May was stronger than expected providing some optimism for China’s oil demand.
- Brent AUG 23-SEP 23 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.18$/bbl
- Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.34$/bbl at 3.53$/bbl
- Near term crude time spreads have gained with the Saudi production cuts adding to the expected supply deficit in the second half of this year. The prompt Brent spread has rallied after falling back to near parity last week but the WTI prompt spread remains in contango due to weak demand. Longer dated spreads are seeing some support from the adjusted 2024 OPEC target levels.
- US gasoline crack up 0.3$/bbl at 33.61$/bbl
- US ULSD crack up 0.1$/bbl at 27.48$/bbl
- Diesel and gasoline crack spreads are relatively unchanged this morning. Diesel has edged up from lows mid last week but remain subdued due to demand concerns and the threat of a US recession. Gasoline spreads dipped last week but are supported by low US inventories and an expected demand boost from the summer driving season.
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