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Crude Holding in Range as Economic Slowdown Balanced With China Optimism


Crude trading in a range with front month Brent between 79$/bbl and 81$/bbl. The market continues to assess the impact of an economic slowdown and central bank rate hikes on global oil demand growth and resilient Russian supply against optimism for a revival in Chinese oil consumption.

  • Brent FEB 23 up 0.3% at 80.06$/bbl
  • WTI FEB 23 up 0.4% at 75.67$/bbl
  • Gasoil JAN 23 down -0.4% at 876$/mt
  • WTI-Brent down -0.03$/bbl at -4.39$/bbl
  • The WTI-Brent spread is closing in from around -6$/bbl at the start of the month due to slowing US SPR withdrawals and Keystone pipeline disruption. The Keystone restart plan is under review following the leak earlier this month. TC Energy last week were aiming for a restart on 20 Dec.
  • Brent FEB 23-MAR 23 up 0.05$/bbl at -0.29$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 up 0.1$/bbl at 2.1$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.05$/bbl at 3.4$/bbl
  • Time spreads are edging higher with only the front spread still in contango. The curve has returned into backwardation supported by the speculation of a recovery in Chinese oil demand.
  • Diesel crack spreads have eased back from high levels at the end of last week while gasoline cracks remains weaker with the spreads just recovering from the lowest since September seen last week.
  • US gasoline crack up 1$/bbl at 16.27$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.6$/bbl at 53.24$/bbl

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