Crude Holding Weekly Gain Ahead of Oil Inventory Data

Crude is slightly softer today but still near the top end of the range seen in the last couple of months with support from OPEC+ member production cuts but with upside limited by economic uncertainty.

• Brent SEP 23 down -0.2% at 76.49$/bbl
• WTI AUG 23 up 0% at 71.8$/bbl
• Gasoil JUL 23 down -0.3% at 736.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.06$/bbl at -4.62$/bbl
• Brent front month has rallied from a low of around 71.6$/bbl on 28 June up to a peak of nearly 77$/bbl yesterday.
• Recent data from China has provided further evidence that the recovery is looking lacklustre while persistent inflation is leading to the potential for further central bank tightening. FOMC minutes yesterday showed that most members think rates will need to rise further.
• API data last night showed another draw in crude with builds in crude inventories. A big draw in inventories last week caused a price rally as the market watches for signs of tightening supplies into the second half of the year.
  • Brent SEP 23-OCT 23 up 0.01$/bbl at 0.25$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 down -0.02$/bbl at 3.06$/bbl
• The prompt Brent time spread is holding onto gains seen in the last week with support from the tighter supplies after seeing the spread fall into contango for a short while last week. The WTI Aug-Sep spread remains in contango. Backwardation in the remainder of the curve has also strengthening over the last week in line with the upside moves in the flat price futures.
• Gasoline crack spreads eases lower yesterday while diesel spreads edged higher ahead of the latest EIA inventory data today. Spreads have held relatively stable over the last couple of weeks with support from low inventories offsetting weak demand concerns.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.2$/bbl at 33.79$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 32.87$/bbl