Crude Holds Onto Monday’s Gains But Range Trading

Oil prices have been moving in a narrow range and are down slightly and off the intraday highs during today’s APAC session but have held onto Monday’s gains. Brent is around $82.43/bbl after a high of $82.72 earlier and WTI $77.51 after a high of $77.77.Increased demand from US and China refiners plus continued geopolitical issues have offset higher non-OPEC output. The USD index is little changed.

• US refining rates are increasing and the stock build seen over the last few weeks is expected to be run down as a result. There is data later today on US crude and product inventories.
• Offsetting factors have been keeping oil range bound through most of the year and Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both expect this to continue over the short term. Goldmans is forecasting prices to be $20 either side of $80 and BoA in the $60-$80 range, according to Bloomberg.
• Brent’s prompt spread has widened signalling that the market continues to tighten.
• Later the Fed’s Barr and Schmid speak, as well as the ECB’s Elderson and BoE’s Ramsden. In terms of data, there are US preliminary durable orders for January, December house prices and February consumer confidence.