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Crude Implied Volatility Fall to Lowest Since Sep 2021

OIL

The Brent second month implied volatility has fallen to the lowest since September 2021 after a steady decline in the last couple of months. Crude price swings have eased as futures have seen a steady rally during July due to OPEC supply cuts and potential China stimulus measures while US and China demand growth concerns continue to weigh.

  • Brent ATM implied volatility has fallen from just below 40% in early May down to a low of 28.5% yesterday while WTI volatility is down to 30.2%.
  • The trend of narrowing crude option put skews from the last couple of months has stabilised slightly as the market assess the impact of tighter supplies and economic concerns on an oil deficit. The Brent Dec23 call-put skew is around -3.6% and WTI at -4.5%.
  • Daily crude traded volumes have dipped slightly this month from high levels seen in June but still higher than levels seen at the start of the year. The average daily ICE Brent aggregate volumes are down from 1.036m in June to 982k so far in July.
    • Brent SEP 23 up 0.6% at 83.43$/bbl
    • WTI SEP 23 up 0.8% at 79.44$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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