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ANZ Business Sentiment Mixed, Price Measures Trending In The Right Direction

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Earlier data were mixed for business conditions. The ANZ Activity outlook for June was 12.2 versus 11.8 for May. This is off earlier 2024 highs of just under 30, but we are still above the average for the past 3 years, (+7.2). On the confidence side the ANZ measure fell to 6.1 from 11.2 in May. This is also comfortably off earlier 2024 highs but still above the average levels seen in recent years.

  • In terms of the detail most focus is likely to rest on inflation metrics. Pricing intentions eased to +35.3 from +41.6 in May. We are now back to late 2020 levels for this metric, but still above pre Covid averages (just above 20).
  • Inflation expectations also moderated to 3.46% from 3.59% prior. This is fresh lows back to late 2021. This will be encouraging trends for the RBNZ, although the outright levels are still elevated from an historical standpoint.
  • Earlier data showed the ANZ consumer sentiment measure ease back to 83.2 from 84.9. We are above cyclical lows for this index, but the overall consumer mood remains depressed from a longer term standpoint.
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Earlier data were mixed for business conditions. The ANZ Activity outlook for June was 12.2 versus 11.8 for May. This is off earlier 2024 highs of just under 30, but we are still above the average for the past 3 years, (+7.2). On the confidence side the ANZ measure fell to 6.1 from 11.2 in May. This is also comfortably off earlier 2024 highs but still above the average levels seen in recent years.

  • In terms of the detail most focus is likely to rest on inflation metrics. Pricing intentions eased to +35.3 from +41.6 in May. We are now back to late 2020 levels for this metric, but still above pre Covid averages (just above 20).
  • Inflation expectations also moderated to 3.46% from 3.59% prior. This is fresh lows back to late 2021. This will be encouraging trends for the RBNZ, although the outright levels are still elevated from an historical standpoint.
  • Earlier data showed the ANZ consumer sentiment measure ease back to 83.2 from 84.9. We are above cyclical lows for this index, but the overall consumer mood remains depressed from a longer term standpoint.