Crude Lower, Market Waiting For Delayed OPEC Meeting

Oil prices were lower again on Friday as tensions eased in the Middle East with a successful ceasefire in Gaza and hostage handover to Israel which continued over the weekend. Prices look like they will be lower again in November following the unwinding of the war risk premium, uncertainty over OPEC+ policy, rising US stocks and increased non-OPEC production. The USD index fell 0.5%.

• WTI fell 2.5% to $75.18/bbl breaking through the 200-day moving average, close to the intraday low of $75.07, to be down 6.6% this month. It had made a high earlier of $77.09. Support is at $72.37, November 16 low.
• Brent was down 1.5% to $80.23/bbl. It held above $80 with the low at $80.13. It had risen above $82 earlier. Support is at $76.60, November 8 low.
• The OPEC+ meeting was delayed from Sunday to Thursday and is likely to be the focus of the week. The possibility that the group can’t agree on further output cuts has weighed on crude in recent sessions. Saudi is likely to extend its cuts into 2024 but not deepen them. Russia’s intentions remain unclear and Iran is expected to increase output further in the coming months.
• Shipping risks in the Middle East remain high with reports of a chemical tanker being boarded by Houthi rebels between Yemen and Somalia on Sunday. The incident has now been resolved. This follows another Israeli-linked ship being hijacked.