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Crude Near Term Volatility Skew Turns More Bearish

OIL OPTIONS

The crude second month skew has moved towards cover of the downside with market focus back on inflation and central bank rate hikes. The Brent 25 delta call-put skew is nearing the Jan lows and the most bearish since November. The skew had closed in to -2$/bbl on 1 Mar but has since fallen back down to -4.15% today.

  • The move in the Brent Dec23 skew is more muted supported by the expectation of higher demand from China later this year. The call-put skew is holding at -4.1% and just below the recent peak of around -3.4%.
  • The WTI second month skew is down to -4.36% and the Dec23 skew is at -5.1%.
  • Market uncertainty and price swings have resulted in a rise in ATM implied volatility with crude vols up about 3% from late last week. Brent second month volatility is up to 35% and WTI up to 35.8%.
    • Brent MAY 23 down -1% at 82.49$/bbl
    • WTI APR 23 down -1.3% at 76.56$/bbl


Source: Bloomberg

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