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Crude Oil Falls Further Back As OPEC Cuts Demand Forecasts

COMMODITIES
  • Crude oil falls circa -2% to continue to chip away at last week’s 17% surge higher in the case of WTI.
  • The move lower was kickstarted by OPEC cutting its 2022 oil demand growth forecast by 460kbpd to 2.64mbpd and its 2023 forecast by 360kbpd to 2.34mbpd, before continuing the move after a small beat for US PPI inflation even if rates markets didn’t move materially on it.
  • Geopolitics/security remains front and centre, with Poland seeing many signs pointing to the Kremlin behind a leak in the Druzhba pipeline but that it’s too early to say whether sabotage or just an accident.
  • WTI is -2.4% at $87.2, clearing support at the 50-day EMA of $87.61 to open $79.14 (Sep 30 low).
  • Brent is -1.9% at $92.5, clearing support at the 50-day EMA of $92.67 to open $85.00 (Sep 30 low).
  • Gold is +0.4% at $1673.32, moving further off support at $1659.7 (Oct 3 low) with still some distance to the bull trigger at $172.95 (Oct 4 high).

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