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Crude Oil Reverses US Data-Related Losses After EIA

  • Crude prices have seen a session of two halves, sliding after primarily the large ADP beat plus other generally strong data, before rallying after US inventory data and along with a paring of initial Tsy losses.
  • Crude stocks were roughly as expected (-1.5mbbls) while crack spreads edged higher with a drop in gasoline and distillates stocks (gasoline stocks -2.5mbbls, distillates -1mbbls).
  • OPEC is holding its 8th International Seminar in Vienna on 5-6 July. OPEC forecasts for 2024 oil demand growth to be lower than this year of 2.35mbpd. OPEC chief Al Ghais said OPEC’s market share is expected to rise to 40%, from 30%, by 2040. OPEC had conversations with four nations to potentially join the group.
  • WTI is +0.2% at $71.96 off a low of $70.22. A pre-data high of $72.34 came closer to resistance at $72.72 (Jun 21 high) whilst support at $66.96 remains comfortably untested.
  • Brent is unch at $76.64 off a low of $75.03, also having come closer to resistance at $77.25 (Jun 21 high) and not close to testing support at $71.43 (May 31 low).
  • Gold is -0.2% at $1910.82 as the net USD strength on the day weighs slightly. Trend conditions remain bearish, with support seen at $1893.1 (Jun 29 low), with gold touching a low of $1902.86 before Treasury yields receded somewhat.

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