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Crude Prices Slide, Gold Surprisingly Doesn’t Benefit From Weaker USD

COMMODITIES
  • Crude prices have fallen sharply as wider economic concerns and future central bank policy and rate hikes create a more bearish demand outlook. The possible US shutdown is also adding further uncertainty to markets.
  • Continued supply tightness provides some upside support after yesterday saw crude inventories at Cushing fell for the seventh week with a draw of 943k this week taking stocks to the lowest since July 2022 at 21.96mbbls and close to operational lows.
  • The traditional US autumn refinery maintenance is shaping up to be heavier than expected, according to Bloomberg, as a greater number of refiners shut units for work.
  • However, Saudi Arabia supplied surprisingly high crude volumes to their buyers in the month of August, drawing down seaborne inventories (floating storage and in-transit volumes) by 1.5mbd on average.
  • WTI is -2.1% at $91.67, unwinding a large part of yesterday’s surge and taking a step closer to support at $88.19 (Sep 26 low).
  • Brent is -1.5% at $95.15 although remains notably above a key support at $91.80 (Sep 26 low).
  • Gold is -0.5% at $1865.03, with surprisingly little respite from the USD index reversing yesterday’s strong gain and Treasuries ultimately rallying. A low of $1857.93 saw it push through latest support at $1865.8 (76.4% retrace of Feb 28 – May 4 bull leg), with $1839.0 (50% retrace of the same move) up next.
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