Crude Recovering Ground But Still Down on the Week

Crude oil markets are edging higher to recover some ground but remain about 6$/bbl down in the week. Markets continue to be weighed down by recession fears and concerns for oil demand growth combined with uncertainty over a recovery in China after weak manufacturing data and strong Russian output despite sanctions. The OPEC production cuts, ongoing Kurdistan output disruption and low US inventories are providing some support.

• Brent JUL 23 up 1.3% at 73.45$/bbl
• WTI JUN 23 up 1.3% at 69.42$/bbl
• Gasoil MAY 23 up 1.3% at 657.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.15$/bbl at -4.08$/bbl
• Adnoc has told customers that it will reduce shipments of crude oil from this month in the first sign that a member of OPEC+ is moving forward with the voluntary production cuts which started this month.
• Saudi Aramco has cut all official selling prices for Asia in June but by slightly less than expected.
• Crude time spreads continue to follow the outright crude moves. The prompt WTI spread has recovered back into backwardation after briefly falling down to parity yesterday. The Brent Dec23-Dec24 spreads are also edging higher but remain just above the lows seen this week and in mid March amid the banking turmoil.
  • Brent JUL 23-AUG 23 unchanged at 0.18$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.26$/bbl at 2.63$/bbl
• Refining margins are seeing some support today but they remain weak with diesel spreads holding just up from the lowest since early 2022. Spreads continue to be pressured by concerns for weak demand, refineries returning from outages and new global refining capacity. Gasoil spreads are in contango until Oct 2023 suggesting ample near term supplies. Low inventory levels and an expected boost from the summer driving season are providing some support while the low margins are leading some Asian refiners to consider run cuts in the coming months.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.5$/bbl at 29.56$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.4$/bbl at 25.74$/bbl