Crude Recovers Ground Following China Growth Data

Crude is recovering some of yesterday’s losses with support from the latest growth data from China after demand concerns, a stronger US dollar and higher Russian exports pushed prices 1.5$/bbl lower.

• Brent JUN 23 up 0.4% at 85.09$/bbl
• WTI MAY 23 up 0.4% at 81.12$/bbl
• Gasoil MAY 23 up 0.3% at 759.5$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.12$/bbl at -3.99$/bbl
• China’s Q1 GDP rose a higher-than-expected 2.2% q/q to be up 4.5% y/y, the highest annual rate since Q1 2022. Apparent oil demand increased, and refiners processed record volumes for March as crude imports rose 22.5% from a year ago.
• Russian crude oil exports bounced back by 540kbpd and above 3mbpd last week. Moscow’s energy ministry said output was cut by 700kbpd in March and exports were consistent with a lower production level but the increase in flows casts doubt on the size of any output reduction.
  • Brent JUN 23-JUL 23 unchanged at 0.31$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.03$/bbl at 5.16$/bbl
• Crude backwardation softened yesterday but remains well above the levels seen before the OPEC production cut announcement at the start of April. The WTI prompt spread has pulled back to parity while the Brent spread is down from 0.58$/bbl back to 0.31$/bbl.
  • Diesel and gasoline spreads are holding steady after seeing a gradual decline over the last week due to the return of US refiners from the heavy maintenance season and weak demand. US has increased diesel exports to Europe as they look to rebuild inventories following the strike disruption to French refineries.
  • US gasoline crack up 0.1$/bbl at 35.7$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.1$/bbl at 29.06$/bbl