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OIL: Crude Steadies but Set for Weekly Gain

OIL
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Crude holds steady today with potential new Russian sanctions and Middle East risk weighed against IEA expectations of a global oil surplus next year despite China stimulus measures.

  • The OPEC+ delay has materially reduced supply, but the market is still expected to be oversupplied by 1.4mb/d if barrels are returned from April as planned, according to the IEA.An oil surplus of 950kb/d is forecast even if OPEC+ maintains cuts throughout 2025.
  • The Times of Israel reported that the Israeli Air Force, "is continuing its readiness and preparations for potential strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities... Due to the dramatic changes in the Middle East... the Israeli military believes there is now an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear sites."
  • US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters he believes a ceasefire-for-hostage deal for Gaza is "close" after talks in Israel.
  • The US considers further restrictions on Russian oil and Trump’s pick for national security advisor suggests maximum pressure on Iran.
  • Canada has indicated that it is examining export taxes on oil to the US as a potential option should President Trump start a full-scale trade war.
    • Brent FEB 25 up 0.1% at 73.49$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 up 0.2% at 70.16$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 25-MAR 25 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.35$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 1.16$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 13.5$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 23.83$/bbl
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Crude holds steady today with potential new Russian sanctions and Middle East risk weighed against IEA expectations of a global oil surplus next year despite China stimulus measures.

  • The OPEC+ delay has materially reduced supply, but the market is still expected to be oversupplied by 1.4mb/d if barrels are returned from April as planned, according to the IEA.An oil surplus of 950kb/d is forecast even if OPEC+ maintains cuts throughout 2025.
  • The Times of Israel reported that the Israeli Air Force, "is continuing its readiness and preparations for potential strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities... Due to the dramatic changes in the Middle East... the Israeli military believes there is now an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear sites."
  • US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters he believes a ceasefire-for-hostage deal for Gaza is "close" after talks in Israel.
  • The US considers further restrictions on Russian oil and Trump’s pick for national security advisor suggests maximum pressure on Iran.
  • Canada has indicated that it is examining export taxes on oil to the US as a potential option should President Trump start a full-scale trade war.
    • Brent FEB 25 up 0.1% at 73.49$/bbl
    • WTI JAN 25 up 0.2% at 70.16$/bbl
    • Brent FEB 25-MAR 25 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.35$/bbl
    • Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.01$/bbl at 1.16$/bbl
    • US gasoline crack down 0.1$/bbl at 13.5$/bbl
    • US ULSD crack down 0.1$/bbl at 23.83$/bbl