Crude Steady After Week of Demand Driven Losses

Crude markets are holding steady today after drifting lower yesterday driven by economic demand growth concerns and a stronger US dollar. Market focus has shifted away from the Chinese growth recovery although demand is expected to increase this year and disruption to Russian oil supplies remains an upside risk.

• Brent APR 23 down -0.3% at 81.92$/bbl
• WTI MAR 23 down -0.3% at 75.62$/bbl
• Gasoil FEB 23 down -0.6% at 840.25$/mt
• WTI-Brent down -0.07$/bbl at -5.97$/bbl
• The EU ban on Russian seaborne fuels will begin on Sunday 5 Feb. Russian crude and product supplies have remained strong despite the sanctions on seaborne Russian crude since the start of December. Refined product exports have recently been boosted by strong demand as Europe has tried to fill storage ahead of the product ban.
  • Brent APR 23-MAY 23 up 0.02$/bbl at 0.16$/bbl
  • Brent JUN 23-DEC 23 up 0.02$/bbl at 2.39$/bbl
• Time spreads have eased back over the last week driven by weak short term demand as Dec23-Dec24 has traded down from nearly 6$/bbl back to 4$/bbl. Despite the decline the forward curve remains in backwardation with concern for Russian oil output and optimism for global oil demand growth this year.
• Diesel crack spreads continue to trend lower while gasoline is finding more support. Weak demand and economic growth concerns are driving diesel lower while upside price risks come from the upcoming Russian sanctions and US refinery maintenance season.
  • US gasoline crack down -0.3$/bbl at 26.82$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack down -0.2$/bbl at 45.86$/bbl