Free Trial

OIL: Crude Surplus

OIL

Rising OPEC and non-OPEC supply is expected to outpace demand growth leading to an oil market surplus of 700kb/d in 2025, according to Morgan Stanley cited by Bloomberg.

  • Brent is forecast at $72/bbl in Q1 and $70/bbl for the remainder of 2025. Brent is likely anchored around $70/bbl, but no lower, as the probability of further OPEC cuts rises considerably below that level.
  • Potential tariffs could lead to lower prices than forecast.
  • OPEC supply growth is expected at 300kb/d and non-OPEC at 1.4mb/d compared to demand growth of 1mb/d in 2025.
  • The surplus would likely result in inventory builds, a reduction in forward curve backwardation and downward price pressure.
105 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

Rising OPEC and non-OPEC supply is expected to outpace demand growth leading to an oil market surplus of 700kb/d in 2025, according to Morgan Stanley cited by Bloomberg.

  • Brent is forecast at $72/bbl in Q1 and $70/bbl for the remainder of 2025. Brent is likely anchored around $70/bbl, but no lower, as the probability of further OPEC cuts rises considerably below that level.
  • Potential tariffs could lead to lower prices than forecast.
  • OPEC supply growth is expected at 300kb/d and non-OPEC at 1.4mb/d compared to demand growth of 1mb/d in 2025.
  • The surplus would likely result in inventory builds, a reduction in forward curve backwardation and downward price pressure.