Crude Ticks Higher With Support From Russian Supply Risks

Crude markets tick higher, but Brent is below an overnight high of 74.8$/bbl with the risk that further civil unrest in Russia could impact future supplies. Near term fundamentals remain unchanged as the short lived unrest is not currently expected to impact output.

• Brent AUG 23 up 0.8% at 74.43$/bbl
• WTI AUG 23 up 0.7% at 69.63$/bbl
• Gasoil JUL 23 up 1.2% at 709.75$/mt
• WTI-Brent up 0.01$/bbl at -4.8$/bbl
• Oil futures fell nearly 3$/bbl last week with the market focus on the potential for further central back rate hikes and weaker global demand growth. OPEC+ production cuts, the extra voluntary cut from Saudi Arabia in July and some economic stimulus measures from China had done little to change the bearish mood of the futures market.
• The Brent Aug-Sep time spread has regained ground today from the lowest since January last week but is still in contango suggesting ample near term supplies. The Dec23-24 spread has also edged higher but is still near the low end of the yearly range keeping the curve in narrow backwardation.
  • Brent AUG 23-SEP 23 up 0.06$/bbl at -0.1$/bbl
  • Brent DEC 23-DEC 24 up 0.11$/bbl at 2.83$/bbl
• Diesel spreads are edged higher after easing back from a peak earlier this month as supply concerns ease and with wider market uncertainty over global demand. Spreads are up on the month after Europe refinery outages and with diesel/gasoil flows into Europe the lowest for three months. Gasoline margins are also drifting lower with a muted start to US gasoline demand from the driving season.
  • US gasoline crack up 0$/bbl at 33.46$/bbl
  • US ULSD crack up 0.7$/bbl at 31.23$/bbl