Crude Weakness & Bond Bid Results In Dovish SONIA Repricing

The previously identified bid in wider core global FI markets and weakness in crude oil continues to provide a bid for SONIA futures, despite typically hawkish comments from BoE dissenter Greene during the London morning (which only had a modest and short-lived impact).

• That leaves SONIA futures running flat to 13bp firmer on the session, with multi-month highs being tested/breached through the greens and blues.
• A full 25bp cut is now essentially priced come the end of the June ’24 MPC, with ~79bp of cuts priced through calendar ’24. The Dec ’24 MPC contract is looking through yesterday’s dovish session extremes at typing.