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CS: Revisions Could See Surprising Headlines

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Credit Suisse forecast nonfarm payrolls growth of 225k in excess of the 190k consensus, with 200k coming from private industry.
  • They note that initial claims remain historically low although business surveys point to a slowdown in the pace of hiring. However, so far there are few signs that anecdotes and news stories about rising layoffs are passing through into a broader labor market slowdown.
  • The u/e rate is likely to remain steady at 3.5%. Job openings remain elevated and the conference board ‘labor differential’ suggests that workers still believe jobs are plentiful [written before increases in both measures this week]. Even if layoffs start to pick up, some persistent strength in labor demand should make it easier for unemployed workers to quickly find new jobs.
  • AHE seen at 0.4% M/M, pushing annual growth to 4.4% Y/Y for the lowest since summer 2021.
  • Revisions: This report will feature an annual population adjustment for the household survey. This can lead to surprising headlines for the unemployment rate, participation rate, or employment-population ratio that do not reflect an underlying monthly move.
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