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Curve Bear Steepens; Retails Sales, Corporate Issuance Weigh

US TSYS

TYH3 deals at 112-00+, -0-01, in line with levels seen late in the NY session.

  • Cash Tsys finished 1-7bp cheaper across the major benchmarks n Wednesday, as the curve bear steepened.
  • Stronger than expected retail sales weighed on Tsys, ex-auto & gas measure was at its strongest level since 2021. Empire Manufacturing was also stronger than expected, although the measure remains in contractionary territory.
  • 2s10s inversion printed a fresh cycle low of -91.94bps before moderating through the NY session.
  • Strong corporate issuance and related hedging activity weighed on the space.
  • Tsys held near session lows after the latest 20-Year supply stopped on the screws despite a softer than average bid/cover ratio being observed. Strong indirect take-up aided digestion.
  • The latest labour market report from Australia headlines in Asia-Pac today. Further out we have PPI and initial jobless claims. Cleveland Fed President Mester and St Louis Fed President Bullard will cross. We also have the latest 30-Year TIPS supply.
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