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Curve Bull Steepens On Waning Risk Sentiment

US TSYS

TYM3 deals at 115-21+, -0-04, a touch below late NY levels as Alphabet shares rise on revenue beat boosting US Equity futures at the re-open, NASDAQ futures are ~1.3% firmer.

  • Cash tsys finished 5-13bps richer across the major benchmarks, the curve bull steepened.
  • Tsys firmed through Tuesday session as concerns over the US banking industry resurfaced weighing on US Equities. Disappointing deposit levels and a failure to provide earnings guidance saw First Republic Bank and regional banks fall. KBW Bank Index was ~3.4% lower and S&P500 fell 1.6%.
  • US Consumer Confidence printed its lowest level since July 2022, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was below expectations.
  • The latest 2-Year Supply maringally tailed despite a stronger than average bid/cover ratio and indirect take up.
  • FOMC dated OIS now price a ~20bp hike into the May meeting with a terminal rate a touch above 5%. There are ~70bps of cuts priced for 2023.
  • In Asia today CPI from Australia provides the highlight. Further out Riksbank’s Monetary Policy Decision and Durable Goods Orders will cross. We also have the latest 5 Year Supply
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