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Curve Starting The Week With Bull Flattening

US TSYS SUMMARY

Tsys have begun the week on a strong note, with the curve bull flattening on renewed risk aversion.

  • A fairly quiet and rangebound Asia-Pac session (amid a Japanese holiday) burst into life around 0300ET when European bank / travel-related shares started sinking fast on mounting COVID 2nd wave / lockdown concerns and the "FinCEN Files" bank scandal. S&P eminis last off 1.6%, USD index +0.4%.
  • Volumes have died down a bit since that initial move but still at a healthy ~240k for TYU0s, and we remain near session highs - that contract last up 7/32 at 139-20 (L: 139-12 / H: 139-20.5) The 2-Yr yield is down 0.6bps at 0.1331%, 5-Yr is down 1.9bps at 0.2627%, 10-Yr is down 3.6bps at 0.6577%, and 30-Yr is down 5.6bps at 1.3974%.
  • A busy week lies ahead for Fed speakers, with most of the heavy hitters appearing incl Chair Powell (in Congressional testimony). Today we get Gov Brainard at 1200ET, then after hours at 1800ET, both NYFed Pres Williams, Atlanta's Bostic, and Dallas' Kaplan (those are three separate events).
  • Apart from Aug Chicago Fed nat'l activity index at 0830ET, nothing on the data slate today. In supply, 1130ET sees combined $105bln in 13-/26-week bill sales.
  • And NYFed buys ~$3.625B in 7-20Yr Tsys.

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