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Curves Disinverting Led By Short-End, Still Off Tuesday Levels

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Curves are disinverting amid a risk-off driven bull steepening, with short end yields rallying hard as central bank cuts are priced out. Unsurprisingly the disinversion has been triggered by bank concern headlines - see chart of US and German 2s10s.

  • Still some room to go on the steepening vs this week's extremes (German 14bp more inverted than -21bp seen Tuesday; US still 7.5bp steeper to go to Tuesday's -41bp).
  • The German 2Y yield has been leading the way most of the morning, falling as much as 34bp to 2.549% this morning (though still room to go for Tuesday's low which was just below 2.43%, and last trading 2.65%).
  • Checking on latest cash yield levels:
  • Germany: 2-Yr yield is down 22.7bps at 2.665%, 5-Yr is down 20.7bps at 2.305%, 10-Yr is down 16bps at 2.26%, and 30-Yr is down 12.9bps at 2.281%.
  • US: 2-Yr yield is down 23.8bps at 4.012%, 5-Yr is down 19.9bps at 3.6539%, 10-Yr is down 16.9bps at 3.5204%, and 30-Yr is down 12.4bps at 3.6794%.

Source: BBG, MNI

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