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Curves Extending Inversion, BOJ Holds Steady

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures trading mildly mixed at the moment, curves extending inversion (2s10s -96.218 low) with intermediate to long end climbing off overnight lows over the last hour.
  • Treasury futures rebounded briefly in reaction to steady BoJ policy announcement early overnight, followed by moderate position squaring ahead the extended US holiday weekend (Juneteenth national holiday Monday, Globex closes 1300ET) as rates see-sawed lower, 10s tapping113-05 low, trades near steady at 113-13.5, yield 3.7187%.
  • Despite the bounce, futures remain in a downtrend and this week’s move lower confirmed a resumption of the trend. Support at 112-29+, May 26 / 30 low has been cleared. Gains are considered corrective - for now. Initial firm resistance is at 114-00, Tuesday’s high.
  • SOFR futures trading mixed, Whites through Reds (SFRM3-SFRH5) -0.0075 toi -0.045; 3M SOFR rate settled -0.00933 to 5.20684 (-.04254/wk).
  • Chances of a 25bp hike at one of the next three meetings firms slightly: July 26 FOMC climbs to 71.6% with Fed funds implied at 17.9bp. September cumulative at +22.9bp to 5.307%, November cumulative 21.4bp to 5.292%. while December cumulative at 12.2bp to 5.200%. At the moment, Fed terminal at 5.295% in Oct'23-Nov'23.
  • Morning data ahead: UofM confidence data at 1000ET.
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