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CZECHIA: Finance Ministry Publishes Quarterly Forecasts, Budget Talks Drag On

CZECHIA
  • The Finance Ministry will release its quarterly economic forecast at 10:30BST/11:30CEST. The previous forecast was published in April and envisaged a GDP growth of +1.4% Y/Y this year and +2.6% Y/Y next year. Inflation was projected to fall to +2.7% Y/Y in 2024 and to +2.4% Y/Y in 2025. These forecasts are at odds with the latest round of projections published by the CNB this month. The central bank's report suggested that the economy could grow by 1.2% Y/Y in 2024 and by 2.8% Y/Y in 2025 and that inflation could average at +2.2% Y/Y in 2024 and at +2.0% Y/Y in 2025.
  • CNB advisers Tomas Adam and Jiri Schwarz wrote in a blog post that one of the reasons why the central bank is cautious in lowering interest rates include services price developments. They admit that the prices of services are a weak predictor of future inflation, but their large increases tend to follow episodes of heightened overall inflation. This is because of inflation clauses pushing rents higher and the impact of rising prices of goods on insurance premiums. Although increased services price growth does not seem driven by demand-side factors, Adam and Schwarz insist that the CNB should remain cautious, as the population is catching up on lost real purchasing power and the labour market remains tight.
  • Lidove Noviny reported that the Ministry for Regional Development will launch a tender for the supply of a new IT system for the digitalization of construction procedures. Backlash against ongoing issues has put pressure on Minister Ivan Bartos to quickly fix the situation or take personal responsibility.
  • The cabinet has ten days to finalise the 2025 budget draft but Denik N reports that the demands of individual ministries significantly exceed the planned deficit target of CZK235bn.
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsCentral and Eastern EuropeRegionCzechia

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