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Daly On Non Rate Sensitive Aspect Of Sticky Supercore

FED
Wrapping up some other areas of Daly's ('24 voter) fireside chat remarks:
  • On supercore inflation: Non-housing services inflation remains sticky. Some of it is cyclical. We’ve got to watch strong medical inflation, it’s not interest rate sensitive but legislation and policy sensitive.
  • On banking sector: As Yellen et al said at the time of the banking crisis, the banking system is safe, sound and resilient – the most important aspect for Americans. Three failed of over 4600 banks and the rest kept doing the important work they do, including passing on tightening conditions from a mon pol transmission point.
  • On CRE stresses: need to unpack the different parts. Office space clearly sees less demand post-pandemic. Industrial space is in high demand though whilst retail space is interesting as people are more bullish than I’d have thought.
  • On AI: A new technology that’s a hot topic, but it’s small right now in the context of jobs. Some researchers say it could really improve productivity whilst others say it could be disruptive. My view is that it will be disruptive that could eventually have benefits.
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