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Daly On Preferred Rate Path

FED
  • SF Fed’s Daly (’24 voter) repeats that she sees 50bp hikes at the next two meetings as part of wanting to get to neutral at about 2.5% to look to see what more needs doing once there.
  • She isn’t forecasting beyond July because more data is needed but notes that whilst the Fed must remove accommodation it must also be open to data.
  • Mixed on labor developments: “Business contacts are ‘fiercely competing’ for workers”, but equally, “contacts don’t see consistent requests for higher wages” and she doesn’t see signs of a wage-price spiral.
  • On QT: SEE BALANCE SHEET TRIMMING DELIVERING ABOUT 25 BPS OR 50 BPS OF TIGHTENING - RTRS
  • Little further impact in Fed Funds which have already increased firmly following the ISM mfg beat, sitting near the day’s highs at 102bps for July and 197bps of hikes priced to year-end with the latter more than unwinding last week’s drop on weak US data, including the PMI miss.
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