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EGB SYNDICATION

France 30-year OATEi: Books open

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Selling going through in Estoxx

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  • Danske Bank have changed their Fed call following Powell's strongly hawkish comments yesterday "that COVID19 outbreaks are inflationary, that it is time to “retire” the word transitory and that the Fed can consider ending QE bond buying “a few months” earlier".
  • They now expect the Fed to accelerate the pace of taper from $15B/mth to $25/mth, which sees tapering concluded in April from June previously.
  • On the back of this, they now see three 25bp hikes in 2022 in Jun, Sep and Dec, with the door potentially open for a May hike. They keep to their call for a further four hikes in 2023.
  • If the Fed increases the tapering pace to $30B, "it would be a strong signal, in our view, that the first rate hike may arrive as early as in March, as the Fed has made it clear that it would like to end QE bond buying before hiking interest rates".