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Danske Bank Idea: Buy Electrolux EUR 28s Or 30s Outright

CONSUMER STAPLES


  • Electrolux (NR/BBB[S]/NR) bonds widened in late 2023 due to a stretched balance sheet and negative margins.
  • Danske argue that the market fails to account for potential triggers for tightening including cost-cutting, lower raw material costs, and stable demand potentially improving earnings by Q2.
  • Demand, while likely not at the trough yet, shows signs of stabilizing; lower interest rates in 2024 could boost consumer sentiment and white goods sales.
  • Further arguments are that a slight earnings improvement could reduce Electrolux's net debt to EBITDA below 3x and see an EBITDA margin of 6-7% (in line with S&P requirements) and that management has a strong incentive to maintain its IG profile to secure favourable credit terms for refinancing due in July 2025.
  • Risks include further demand drops in 2024 or Electrolux abandoning its continued IG rating target though they could still consider asset sales or a rights issue to avoid doing so.

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