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Data Dependent

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures look to finish mixed Thursday with 2s-10s weaker, curves unwinding a good portion of the post FOMC steepening as today's data tempered post-FOMC rate cut projections.
  • Rates actually opened stronger across the board, extending gains after the bank of England delivered a dovish hold policy announcement this morning. Short end support evaporated in stages, initially on slightly lower than estimated weekly jobless claims data: 210k vs. 213k est (prior up-revised to 212k from 209k, however).
  • Treasury futures gapped lower after the S&P Global US PMI releases saw manufacturing beat (52.5 vs cons 51.8 after 52.2) but services miss (51.7 vs cons 52.0 after 52.3) in the preliminary March PMI. Overall input cost inflation hit a six-month high. “Service providers indicated that higher operating expenses generally reflected increasing wages, while rising oil and gasoline costs were often mentioned by manufacturers."
  • After the flash data, Treasuries traded sideways through the rest of the session, Jun'24 10Y futures -3 at 110-11 vs. 110-08.5L/110-26.5H, 2s10s curve -3.603 at -36.766. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position and this highlights a downtrend. Key short-term resistance to watch is 111-01+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to suggest scope for a stronger recovery. On the downside, the bear trigger lies at 109-24+.
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