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Data-Driven Vol, Yields Higher, Stocks Extend Wk Lows

US TSYS
FI markets traded weaker after the bell, off early session lows amid data-driven vol in the first half. Quiet second half trade ensued even as equities fell back to late Tuesday levels (SPX -3.6% to 4128.0)
  • Rates trade weaker, curves bear flattening with short end underperforming (Block sale: -10,000 TUM2 105-10.88, sell through 105-11 post-time bid at 0841:030ET) after Personal Income: +0.5%/MoM vs. +0.4% est, Spending +1.1%MoM vs. +0.6% est, PCE Deflator in line at +0.9%, Employment Cost Index is +1.4% vs. 1.1% est.
  • FI levels rebounded sharply after April Chicago Business Barometer™ fell to 56.4 vs. 62.0 est. Prices Paid ticked up a modest 0.4 points to 86.1 with over three-quarters of firms citing higher prices this month. The Ukraine war was cited as inflating steel, plastics and lumber costs.
  • Data driven volatility evaporated by midday with rates hold to a relative narrow range, yield curves flatter but off lows (2s10s -1.116 at 18.994 vs. 13.399L; 5s30 -1.867 at -3.742 vs. -6.508L).
  • Focus turns to next Wednesday's FOMC policy annc, 50bp expected, Tsy refunding early Wednesday as well.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 7.7bps at 2.6943%, 5-Yr is up 7.3bps at 2.9124%, 10-Yr is up 5.9bps at 2.8811%, and 30-Yr is up 4.9bps at 2.9413%.
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