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EUROPE
  • There are some big data releases at the top of the hour with UK labour market data, Sweden inflation and Norwegian trade balance data all due.
  • The Norwegian data is the least market relevant but comes close to Thursday's Norges Bank decision.
  • However for both the UK and Swedish data we will receive an extra month of data ahead of the next respective central bank policy decisions.
  • The UK labour market report will be watched closely with wage growth expected to show further signs of acceleration with the ex-bonus measure expected to pick up from 7.3%3m/YoY to 7.4% (albeit with a slight downward skew). However, there was notable weakness in the rest of the labour market report last month with payrolled workers falling slightly and the unemployment rate picking up from 3.8% to 4.0% (where it is expected to remain steady this month). The data comes ahead of tomorrow's inflation print and amid a backdrop of around 23bp priced for the September MPC meeting and a peak of 63bp priced by the March 2024 meeting.
  • In Sweden, CPIF and CPIF excluding energy are both expected to see a one tenth deceleration in July.
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