MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, April 26

MNI BRIEF: China, US Should Strengthen Dialogue, Cooperation

MNI BRIEF: SNB Framework Reform 'Playing With Fire' - Steiner

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1056 Fri; -4.56% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 613; OIL RIGS 506; GAS RIGS 105

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL APR INDEX 77.2

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

January CPIF Should Remove Outside Of March Rate Cut

SWEDEN
Data BulletDataHomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

EURSEK drops 18 ticks as January CPI comes in above consensus on an annual basis for headline CPIF (3.3% Y/Y vs 3.1% cons, 2.3% prior). CPIF ex-energy is in line with forecasts at 4.4% Y/Y though which is seemingly limiting the move.

  • The Riksbank had forecasted CPIF ex-energy at 4.51% Y/Y, meaning the forecast gap between the Riksbank's November MPR and the actual inflation readings falls to -0.1pp (from -0.3pp in December and -0.5pp in November).
  • We had noted before today's print that the bar to early rate cuts is quite high. On the surface, the MNI Markets Team believes today's reading makes the outside chance of a March rate cut near-zero, and a cut in May quite a bit more unlikely.
  • On Thursday, SEB estimated that markets were pricing 0bps of cuts through the March meeting and -16bps through the May meeting.
  • A reminder that a June cut from the Riksbank is also likely to align more closely to the easing cycles of the ECB and the Fed, which should protect the SEK from additional weakness.
174 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

EURSEK drops 18 ticks as January CPI comes in above consensus on an annual basis for headline CPIF (3.3% Y/Y vs 3.1% cons, 2.3% prior). CPIF ex-energy is in line with forecasts at 4.4% Y/Y though which is seemingly limiting the move.

  • The Riksbank had forecasted CPIF ex-energy at 4.51% Y/Y, meaning the forecast gap between the Riksbank's November MPR and the actual inflation readings falls to -0.1pp (from -0.3pp in December and -0.5pp in November).
  • We had noted before today's print that the bar to early rate cuts is quite high. On the surface, the MNI Markets Team believes today's reading makes the outside chance of a March rate cut near-zero, and a cut in May quite a bit more unlikely.
  • On Thursday, SEB estimated that markets were pricing 0bps of cuts through the March meeting and -16bps through the May meeting.
  • A reminder that a June cut from the Riksbank is also likely to align more closely to the easing cycles of the ECB and the Fed, which should protect the SEK from additional weakness.