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Day Two Of Powell Before Governor Cook Late On

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are almost unchanged from yesterday’s close, having ticked a touch higher after Powell to only slightly trim last week’s sizeable decline on softer labor data - table below.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp Jul, 19.5bp Sep, 30bp Nov, 50bp Dec and 66bp Jan.
  • Chair Powell speaks in day two of the semiannual testimony, this time to the House with the Q&A watched in the low likelihood of any surprises.
  • Powell yesterday failed to provide a meaningfully dovish deviation vs. recent remarks, perhaps disappointing some who were looking for a bolder dovish tone in the wake of the recent run of soft labor market and economic activity data, although he did acknowledge that the labor market is now fully back in balance.
  • Today’s possibly more notable Fedspeak comes late on with Gov. Cook (voter) at 1930ET on global inflation and monetary policy (text + Q&A) when speaking in Australia. She said Jun 25 that the Fed is paying attention to the rising unemployment rate [before a further increase in June payrolls], talked on policy lags and also the better balance between jobs and inflation goals.
  • Other Fedspeak is likely to be limited, with Goolsbee (’25 voter) and Gov. Bowman (voter) giving opening remarks at a Fed Listens event focused on childcare (just text).

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  • Fed Funds implied rates are almost unchanged from yesterday’s close, having ticked a touch higher after Powell to only slightly trim last week’s sizeable decline on softer labor data - table below.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp Jul, 19.5bp Sep, 30bp Nov, 50bp Dec and 66bp Jan.
  • Chair Powell speaks in day two of the semiannual testimony, this time to the House with the Q&A watched in the low likelihood of any surprises.
  • Powell yesterday failed to provide a meaningfully dovish deviation vs. recent remarks, perhaps disappointing some who were looking for a bolder dovish tone in the wake of the recent run of soft labor market and economic activity data, although he did acknowledge that the labor market is now fully back in balance.
  • Today’s possibly more notable Fedspeak comes late on with Gov. Cook (voter) at 1930ET on global inflation and monetary policy (text + Q&A) when speaking in Australia. She said Jun 25 that the Fed is paying attention to the rising unemployment rate [before a further increase in June payrolls], talked on policy lags and also the better balance between jobs and inflation goals.
  • Other Fedspeak is likely to be limited, with Goolsbee (’25 voter) and Gov. Bowman (voter) giving opening remarks at a Fed Listens event focused on childcare (just text).