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DB: Most Pessimistic Consumer Metric In 50+ Years

US
  • This morning’s final reading of the University of Michigan survey for January confirmed that consumer sentiment has deteriorated in recent months “as households have been buffeted by a number of headwinds, including elevated inflation, waning fiscal support, successive covid waves, and most recently volatile financial markets”.
  • In addition to that, DB highlight that the gap between the present conditions components in the U.Mich and Conference Board surveys is the most negative its been in fifty years.
  • The metric, historically highly correlated with the yield curve slope, currently implies “recession risks approaching 50% over the next year”.
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