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Early focus was on tech bellwether Nvidia's earnings, which left the market a little disappointing around lofty Q4 expectations. Tech equities are lower in Asia Pac, but broader macro fallout was very limited.
US Tsy futures have been relatively steady, trading within recent ranges. The USD is a touch lower, but ranges have also been tight in this space.
South Korean export data points to some positives around the global growth/trade outlook.
Looking ahead, we have the RBA Governor speaking at 7pm AEDT, but at a payments conference so monetary policy may not be spoken about. Later on, we have the Philly Fed survey in the US, and initial jobless claims. Fed speak is also due, along with more ECB speak.
It has been another slow session for tsys so far, futures are trading with the prior days ranges, while most trading seems to be around futures rolls. TU is -00¼ at 102-19¾, while TY is trading +00+ at 109-22+.
The belly of the curve is slightly outperforming today, with the 2s7s30s fly -1bp at -24bps, now the lowest since Nov 11th. The 2yr is -0.6bps at 4.308%, while the 10yr is trading -1.2bps at 4.398%.
The 10yr has spent the past week trading in a narrow range, having failed to break above 4.50% on multi occasions, while the 2s10s has been rangebound since early Oct.
Projected rate cuts have receded slightly this week vs Friday close (*): Dec'24 cumulative -13.0bp (-14.5bp), Jan'25 -20.0bp (-23.1bp), Mar'25 -34.0bp (-37.6bp), May'25 -41.6bp (-45.3bp).
Earlier this morning the Fed's Collins earlier emphasized the need for additional interest-rate cuts but advocated a cautious and deliberate approach to avoid missteps, she also stated that while policy remains somewhat restrictive, current adjustments give the FOMC flexibility to assess risks to inflation and employment. She highlighted that inflation is progressing toward the 2% target, though unevenly, and noted the labor market remains healthy despite concentrated job growth
Focus now turns to Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Jobless Claims, Leading Index & Existing Home Sales later today, while we also have Fed speakers including Hammack, Goolsbee, Schmid & Barr
Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $35.1b, exceeding the consensus estimate of $33.25b, driven by strong data center revenue of $30.8b vs. $29.14b est, and gaming revenue of $3.3b vs. $3.06b est, Adjusted EPS was $0.81, beating expectations of $0.74, with an adjusted gross margin of 75%, matching estimates. For Q4, Nvidia guided revenue at $37.5b (±2%), slightly above the $37.1b consensus, with an adjusted gross margin forecast of 73%-74%.
The company highlighted robust demand for its upcoming Blackwell chips, set for initial shipments in Q4 FY2025, and noted ongoing supply constraints for both Hopper and Blackwell systems. While the results were strong, the market perceived Q4 guidance as underwhelming relative to Nvidia's historically aggressive growth trajectory.
Key Headlines:
HOPPER, BLACKWELL SYSTEMS HAVE SOME SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS
NVIDIA BLACKWELL PRODUCTION SHIPMENTS TO BEGIN IN 4Q OF FY2025
NVIDIA CFO SAYS BLACKWELL DEMAND IS STAGGERING
Market Reaction:
Post-Earnings Decline: Nvidia shares fell 5% in after-hours trading following the earnings release, though the decline moderated as trading progressed. The reaction was attributed to Q4 revenue guidance seen as "light" against high expectations. The Nasdaq initial pared the late gains in the index, however as Nvidia recovered so did Nasdaq futures and we last trade just 0.10% lower.
Sector Impact: The broader tech sector experienced a spillover effect, with stocks like Palantir, Super Micro Computer, and Palo Alto Networks trading lower post-market.
Outlook for Nvidia: The stock remains a key pillar for the S&P 500, of the 76 analysts covering the stock on BBG, there are only 2 sell recommendations, with 6 holds and 68 buys however the consensus show just a modest projected 12-month target price increase to 158.90 (+8.9%).
• In recent months global bond market volatility has jumped, reflecting uncertainty around the Federal Reserve easing cycle and the US Election outcome, which delivered a red wave to the Republicans and may have strong implications for the fiscal/growth outlook in 2025. • Global bond markets are correlated to the US bond market to varying degrees, China's market remains a clear outlier though in Asia. • Other factors that drive Asian bond markets and influence their returns (and therefore impact changes in correlations) are supply and demand factors. • Still, even with expectations of higher supply, China government bond yields have remained very resilient. PBoC policy actions have been supportive, particularly at a time of lower foreign ownership. • In a global context though, Investing in China Government bonds is very lowly correlated to US Treasuries and hence global bond market volatility thereby providing a diversified return strategy for global investors when building portfolios.
South Korea's first 20-days trade data for Nov provide some comfort around the global trade outlook, although this is just one indicator. The first chart below overlays the daily average of the first 20-days of export growth (y/y) against global trade growth in y/y terms.
We may see some softening in global trade volumes in the first part of Q4, but the Nov export bounce in South Korea suggests it could be a shallow one. All else equal though a better South Korea export backdrop is typically a positive sign for global trade/growth momentum.
The detail on South Korean exports shows some slowing in vehicle exports, but semiconductor exports rose to 42.5%y/y, after y/y momentum eased in recent months from mid-year highs near 60%.
Taiwan export orders data, which printed late yesterday, showed a slightly better than expected result, rising 4.9% y/y, versus 3.8% forecast for Oct (we are still below earlier YTD highs above 10% for export orders).
Today's South Korea data also showed export growth to China running ahead of the US, see the second chart below. For a long period of time export growth to the US has been running at a faster clip.
This may reflect better growth signs given China stimulus measures. The US and trade outlook is quite uncertain as we progress into 2025 though, with the returning Trump administration generally seen as US growth positive but potentially quite trade negative.
Fig 1: South Korea First 20-days Exports & Global Trade Volumes - Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Fig 2: South Korea First 20-days Exports To China & The US - Y/Y
JGB futures are weaker, -14 compared to settlement levels.
Outside of the previously outlined weekly International Investment flows, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
BoJ Governor Ueda delivers remarks around 2:10pm local time. "Remarks by Governor UEDA at the Paris EUROPLACE Financial Forum 2024 in Tokyo" per the BoJ website.
Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off. Today in the US the focus will be on jobless claims and any pickup in activity in Ukraine/Russia.
Cash JGBs are little changed across benchmarks. The benchmark 20-year yield is 0.6bp higher at 1.900% after today’s supply.
The 20-year JGB auction delivered mixed results. While the low price missed dealer expectations, the cover ratio improved to 3.5233x from 3.0369x, and the auction tail shortened, indicating stronger demand. Today’s auction offered an outright yield 10bps higher than last month, despite the 10/20 yield curve remaining largely unchanged.
The swaps curve has bear-steepened, with rates 1bp lower to 3bps higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see National CPI and Jibun bank PMIs (P).
Offshore investors continued to buy local stocks last week, marking the eighth straight week of consecutive inflows into this space. Late Oct flows and through the first part of Nov have been running at a slower clip compared to the previous month though. Offshore investors also purchased local bonds last week, ended a modest run of outflows from the previous two weeks. Since the start of Oct we have had a ¥2.7trln in net inflows into this space.
In terms of Japan outbound flows, local investors returned to net sellers of offshore bonds last week. We have seen net selling in this segment in 6 out of the last 8 weeks. Better US data outcomes and the incoming Trump Presidency have dented global bond returns.
Local investors bought offshore shares for the first time the first week of Oct. The trend clearly remains toward selling down such holdings though.
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -2.0) are holding weaker in tight ranges in today’s data-light Sydney session.
RBA Governor Bullock will give a speech at the Women In Payments Conference at 1900 AEST today.
“Westpac has become the second big bank to push its forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first cash rate cut to May from February, as more economists and investors dump expectations for pre-election mortgage relief.” (per AFR)
Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off. Today in the US the focus will be on jobless claims and any pickup in activity in Ukraine/Russia.
Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +17bps.
Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -6.
RBA-dated OIS pricing shows no easing by year-end. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until August.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see S&P Global PMIs (P) alongside the AOFM’s planned sale of A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond.
In 2024, there have been three notable episodes of reduced cross-market curve correlation between Australia and the U.S., each suggesting a focus on domestic rather than global or U.S.-centric drivers.
Each episode coincided with key Australian CPI releases. The first drop occurred in late April with the release of Q1 CPI data, while the second took place in late June, following the May Monthly CPI release.
Both the April and June declines were brief, as cross-market correlation between the AU 3/10 cash curve and the U.S. Treasury 2/10 curve quickly returned to the upper end of its annual range.
A third dip emerged in late September after the August Monthly CPI, though the cross-curve correlation has since rebounded to near its highest level this year, as ACGBs have been influenced by recent gains in U.S. yields.
While the Q3 CPI data released in late October did not shift the focus of curve dynamics to domestic factors, next Wednesday’s October CPI release presents another opportunity to do so.
Additionally, as global yield curve correlations tend to weaken during the transition from synchronised policy tightening to divergent easing cycles, the current elevated level of correlation appears unsustainable.
Figure 1: Rolling 10-day Correlation – ACGB 3/10 Curve Vs. US Tsy 2/10 Curve
NZGBs closed flat to 2bps cheaper after a subdued data-light session of dealings.
NZ Treasury said it would likely cut its economic and fiscal forecasts because of a sustained productivity slowdown in the economy. The May budget’s forecasts had anticipated a return to economic growth in the second half of 2024, but the latest data suggests the recovery will begin later, Treasury Chief Economic Adviser Dominick Stephens said in a speech. (per Reuters)
Today’s supply showed mixed results across the cash lines, with cover ratios ranging from 1.71x (May-32) to 4.17x (Apr-29).
Swap rates closed flat to 3bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
The case for another sizable RBNZ rate cut next week is almost as strong as it was in October and at present remains the “path of least regret,” according to ASB Bank. RBNZ will lower its OCR by a further 50bp to 4.25% on Nov. 27, bringing it closer to the more neutral level which is in a rough 3-4% range, economists Nick Tuffley and Mark Smith write in note.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer. A cumulative 92bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
The local calendar is light for the remainder of the week. The next key release will be Q3 Retail Sales ex Inflation on Monday.
The USD has spent the first part of Thursday's trade, giving back some of Wednesday's gains. At this stage, the BBDXY index is down around 0.15%, last near 1282. This comes after the index rose a little over 0.40% for Wednesday's session. G10 FX pairs remain firmly within recent ranges though.
Yen has outperformed the G10, albeit marginally. We are up 0.30% against the USD. This puts USD/JPY back near 155.00. The data calendar has just had weekly investment flows, while earlier reports crossed of the largest union urging the government to back wage rises, particularly at small firms.
The government is also set to pass a stimulus package, which has been well telegraphed but is slightly larger than last year's per onshore media (BBG).
BoJ Governor Ueda is set to speak later, but it remains unclear if the policy outlook will be covered. He is to speak at the Paris EUROPLACE Financial Forum 2024 in Tokyo around 2:10pm local time.
AUD/USD is up around 0.25%, last near 0.6520. NZD/USD is close to unchanged at the 0.5880 level. The AUD/NZD cross is tracking higher, last near 1.1090, close to recent highs.
In the cross asset space, US equity futures are down, led by tech (Nasdaq futures off around 0.40%). Some disappointment post Nvidia results (from late in Wednesday US trade) has weighed. This hasn't impacted higher beta FX though.
US yields sit down a touch, Fed speak has been mixed between hawks/doves in the past 24 hours.
Coming up, we have the RBA Governor speaking at 7pm AEDT, but at a payments conference so monetary policy may not be spoken about. Later on, we have the Philly Fed survey in the US, and initial jobless claims. Fed speak is also due, along with more ECB speak.
Equity markets are trading mostly lower today, following on from Nvidia's revenue forecast, which fell short of the highest expectations, dampening sentiment in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. In Asia, Japanese chipmakers like Advantest and Hoya led declines, pulling the Topix down 0.3% and the Nikkei 225 by 0.8%. TSMC and SK Hynix also saw losses, reflecting concerns about the AI boom slowing. In Australia, Nvidia’s earnings report weighed on tech and consumer discretionary shares, though energy and financials offered some support. Traders are also cautious ahead of BOJ Governor Ueda’s remarks, which could provide insights into the central bank's policy direction. Meanwhile, geopolitical and legal developments, including the Adani bribery charges, are adding to market uncertainty.
Hong Kong & China equities are trading in narrow ranges today, although most major benchmarks are pointing to small losses so far. The HSI is -0.20%, while the CSI 300 is -0.15%.
Foreign investors have been slightly better sellers of Korean equities today, with a net outflow of $65m, most of that coming from the tech sector. The KOSPI is 0.15% higher, as Samsung trades up 0.75%, while the KOSDAQ trades 0.45% lower.
US equity futures are trading lower, with the Nasdaq leading losses, last down 0.45%.
South Korea: South Korean equities saw outflows of $193m yesterday, contributing to a net outflow of $638m over the past five trading days. South Korean equities have fared better than Taiwan's although have been dragged down with the wider sell-off in the tech space after the Biden Administration said they'd considered tougher trade restrictions on companies providing AI and semiconductor tech to China. The 5-day average outflow is $128m, significantly lower than the 20-day average inflow of $113m and the 100-day average inflow of $118m. Year-to-date, South Korea has experienced substantial inflows totaling $19.213b.
Taiwan: Foreign investors continue to heavily sell Taiwanese equities with a significant outflow of $1.788b yesterday, this has resulted in a net outflow of $4.601b over the past five trading days. These large outflows are linked to Trump announcing that they should pay for US protection from China, with those comments cast doubts over whether the US would protect Taiwan, he also mentioned that Taiwan had taken all of the American semiconductor industry, with the market viewing this as growing concern he would impose tariffs or trade restrictions on them if he get in power. The 5-day average outflow is $920m, considerably lower than the 20-day average outflow of $400m and the 100-day average outflow of $50m. The heavy selling over the past week and seen all yearly inflows erased and now sits at a ytd outflow of $943m.
India: Indian equities saw inflows of $199m yesterday, contributing to a net inflow of $1.544b over the past five trading days. Foreign investors have been strong buyers of Indian equities post the Indian Election in early June, with just two days of outflows. The 5-day average inflow is $309m, higher than the 20-day average inflow of $303m but below the 100-day average outflow of $41m. Year-to-date, India has experienced inflows totaling $3.243b.
Indonesia: Indonesian equities recorded inflows of $72m yesterday, resulting in a net inflow of $118m over the past five trading days. This was the largest inflow since June 13th. The 5-day average outflow is $24m, below the 20-day average inflow of $20m and the 100-day average outflow of $8m. Year-to-date, Indonesia has experienced outflows totaling $127m.
Thailand: Thai equities saw inflows of $36m yesterday, contributing to a net inflow of $41m over the past five trading days. The Thai SET is one of the worst performing equity markets in the region this year, as CPI crashed from a high of 8% in mid 2022 to -1% earlier this year, the Government have been calling for interest rate cuts although the BoT has held steady with more members voting to keep rates on hold than prior in June. The 5-day average inflow is $8m, better than the 20-day average outflow of $17m and the 100-day average outflow of $24m. Year-to-date, Thailand has seen significant outflows amounting to $3.299b.
Malaysia: Malaysian equities experienced inflows of $5m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day net inflow of $139m. We have now since 14 straight session on inflows into the region, while the Malay Bursa KLCI Index hit multi-year highs. The 5-day average inflow is $28m, higher than the 20-day average inflow of $10m and the 100-day average outflow of $2m. Year-to-date, Malaysia has experienced inflows totaling $152m.
Philippines: Philippine equities saw inflows of $7m yesterday, with a 5-day net inflow of $27.7m. Flows in the region have been muted recently with no real trend emerging. The 5-day average inflow is $6m, better than the 20-day average inflow of $0m and the 100-day average outflow of $7m. Year-to-date, the Philippines has seen outflows totaling $495m.
Oil prices lost ground overnight as concerns as to an escalation in Ukraine were overshadowed by a jump in US inventories.
US crude inventories rose 4.8m barrels last week and gasoline 2.05m barrels.
This damped the prospects for oil which had been alert to the news of the use of US and UK made missiles used by Ukraine on Russia.
WTI peaked at US$70.15 during the US trading day, finishing the day at $68.87 following the inventory report. It has opened in Asian trading a touch firmer at $69.04 before trading down to $68.90.
Brent had peaked at US$73.94 during the US trading day only to finish at $73.30 and has traded around $72.92 / $72.98 for most of the day.
The inventory story and its impact on prices should remain temporary as Russia’s veiled threats for nuclear retaliation remain prominent for investors.
In the Middle East efforts remain ongoing to find a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel as Joe Biden’s time as US President comes to an end.
In the options markets, the premiums for bullish call options over bearish put options in Brent futures has disappeared at time where the additional risk premium that oil futures have had embedded in them (due to war-related supply issues), has all but disappeared since Trump’s election.
Data released from China customs yesterday show that Malaysia has replaced Saudi Arabia as China’s second largest supplier of oil, behind Russia.
Gold is steady in today’s Asia-Pac session, after closing 0.7% higher at $2650.60 on Wednesday, a third consecutive session of gains.
The move came amid a further increase in geopolitical tensions as Ukraine launched another long-range missile attack on Russia.
Despite the heightened geopolitical risk, analysts at Standard Chartered believe that macro factors, including the US dollar and rate-cut expectations, are likely to set the tone in the near term.
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said that more interest-rate cuts were needed, but policymakers should proceed carefully to avoid moving too quickly or too slowly.
Lower rates are typically positive for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
According to MNI’s technicals team, the long-term trend condition in gold remains bullish, with the yellow metal piercing the 20-day EMA at $2,651.3 today.
A clear break above it would highlight a possible reversal and signal the end of the recent bearish corrective cycle, opening $2,710.4, the Nov 11 high.
The RBI considers its job is “not finished” till inflation settles around its target of 4% on a durable basis, Governor said Thursday (source: BBG).
The slack in speed of economic activities observed in the second quarter of the current financial year is "behind us," according to the RBI November bulletin (source: BBG).
India’s NIFTY 50 has opened Thursday very weak, down -0.75%.
INR – Rupee remains very stable at present trading around 84.43.
Bonds:having moved marginally lower in yield yesterday, India’s 10-year government bond edged up in yield 1bp this morning to 6.855%.
China's Stock Buyback Loan Program Reaches USD4.9 Billion in a Month (source:BBG).
Aluminium Climbs With Chinese Plants Seen Front-Loading Exports ahead of tax changes (source:BBG).
Despite the news that the take up for the stock buyback has been strong, all major indices were down today – Hang Seng (-0.13%), CSI300 (-0.22%), Shanghai Comp (-0.10%) Shenzhen (-0.05%).
CNY - PBOC set its daily reference rate for the yuan stronger than estimates at 7.1935 per dollar, The average forecast in a BBG survey was 7.2374
Bonds – CGB 10 year yields drifted modestly lower to 2.087%.
Bank Indonesia (“BI”) kept rates on hold yesterday at 6.00% overnight with I Governor Warjiyo indicated in his press conference that given the Bank’s focus on maintaining currency stability, the prospects of further cuts has now narrowed (source: MNI – Market News).
Indonesia’s current account deficit narrowed in the third quarter to US$2.15bn, significantly below economists’ estimates of US$2.948bn. (source: MNI – Market News).
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite was up today, marking only fifth positive day this month, rising +0.25%
IDR : the currency saw significant weakness following the BI’s hold, weaker by -0.50% to be the worst performer of its Asian peers today.
Bonds: yields across all maturities were higher today with the 5 year the biggest underperformer up +4bp to 6.754% and the 10 year up 3bps to 6.929%.
In North East Asia, USD trends are mixed. USD/CNH is little changed, last near 7.2490. The pair hasn't seen much downside despite a softer tone for the USD against the majors (particularly the yen).
The USD/CNY fixing error widened to fresh wides going back to early August. The print on the fixing remains sub 7.2000 at this stage. 1 month implied vol for USD/CNH continues to track lower, last near 4.7%. The market is not expecting fireworks before year end and before the new Trump Administration is in power. 6 month implied vols sit more elevated relative to 2024 averages, last near 6.3%.
Local equities are down a touch at the break.
For spot USD/KRW we sit back under the 1400 level, last near 1398, around 0.20% stronger in won terms. Earlier data showed a better export backdrop for the first 20-days in Nov. This is a marginal positive for the won but not a trend changer. Local equities are also higher, up nearly 0.35% at this stage.
Spot USD/TWD is higher, last up 0.20% to 32.575. We are closing back in on recent Nov highs, at 32.61. The Nvidia result has weighed on US tech futures at the margin, which may be seeing some negative spill over for local stocks (Taiex last down 0.60%).
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date
GMT/Local
Impact
Country
Event
21/11/2024
0700/0700
***
GB
Public Sector Finances
21/11/2024
0745/0845
**
FR
Manufacturing Sentiment
21/11/2024
0830/0930
EU
ECB's Cipollone at ECRB meeting
21/11/2024
1100/0600
***
TR
Turkey Benchmark Rate
21/11/2024
1100/1100
**
GB
CBI Industrial Trends
21/11/2024
1330/0830
***
US
Jobless Claims
21/11/2024
1330/0830
*
CA
Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
21/11/2024
1330/0830
**
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
21/11/2024
1330/0830
**
US
WASDE Weekly Import/Export
21/11/2024
1345/0845
US
Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack
21/11/2024
1400/1400
GB
BOE Mann fireside chat with Brown Brothers Harriman
21/11/2024
1500/1600
**
EU
Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
21/11/2024
1500/1000
***
US
NAR existing home sales
21/11/2024
1500/1000
*
US
Services Revenues
21/11/2024
1530/1030
**
US
Natural Gas Stocks
21/11/2024
1530/1630
EU
ECB's Lane in panel on macroeconomic effects of geopolitical uncertainty
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.
Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI (SYDNEY)
Early focus was on tech bellwether Nvidia's earnings, which left the market a little disappointing around lofty Q4 expectations. Tech equities are lower in Asia Pac, but broader macro fallout was very limited.
US Tsy futures have been relatively steady, trading within recent ranges. The USD is a touch lower, but ranges have also been tight in this space.
South Korean export data points to some positives around the global growth/trade outlook.
Looking ahead, we have the RBA Governor speaking at 7pm AEDT, but at a payments conference so monetary policy may not be spoken about. Later on, we have the Philly Fed survey in the US, and initial jobless claims. Fed speak is also due, along with more ECB speak.
It has been another slow session for tsys so far, futures are trading with the prior days ranges, while most trading seems to be around futures rolls. TU is -00¼ at 102-19¾, while TY is trading +00+ at 109-22+.
The belly of the curve is slightly outperforming today, with the 2s7s30s fly -1bp at -24bps, now the lowest since Nov 11th. The 2yr is -0.6bps at 4.308%, while the 10yr is trading -1.2bps at 4.398%.
The 10yr has spent the past week trading in a narrow range, having failed to break above 4.50% on multi occasions, while the 2s10s has been rangebound since early Oct.
Projected rate cuts have receded slightly this week vs Friday close (*): Dec'24 cumulative -13.0bp (-14.5bp), Jan'25 -20.0bp (-23.1bp), Mar'25 -34.0bp (-37.6bp), May'25 -41.6bp (-45.3bp).
Earlier this morning the Fed's Collins earlier emphasized the need for additional interest-rate cuts but advocated a cautious and deliberate approach to avoid missteps, she also stated that while policy remains somewhat restrictive, current adjustments give the FOMC flexibility to assess risks to inflation and employment. She highlighted that inflation is progressing toward the 2% target, though unevenly, and noted the labor market remains healthy despite concentrated job growth
Focus now turns to Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Jobless Claims, Leading Index & Existing Home Sales later today, while we also have Fed speakers including Hammack, Goolsbee, Schmid & Barr
Nvidia reported Q3 revenue of $35.1b, exceeding the consensus estimate of $33.25b, driven by strong data center revenue of $30.8b vs. $29.14b est, and gaming revenue of $3.3b vs. $3.06b est, Adjusted EPS was $0.81, beating expectations of $0.74, with an adjusted gross margin of 75%, matching estimates. For Q4, Nvidia guided revenue at $37.5b (±2%), slightly above the $37.1b consensus, with an adjusted gross margin forecast of 73%-74%.
The company highlighted robust demand for its upcoming Blackwell chips, set for initial shipments in Q4 FY2025, and noted ongoing supply constraints for both Hopper and Blackwell systems. While the results were strong, the market perceived Q4 guidance as underwhelming relative to Nvidia's historically aggressive growth trajectory.
Key Headlines:
HOPPER, BLACKWELL SYSTEMS HAVE SOME SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS
NVIDIA BLACKWELL PRODUCTION SHIPMENTS TO BEGIN IN 4Q OF FY2025
NVIDIA CFO SAYS BLACKWELL DEMAND IS STAGGERING
Market Reaction:
Post-Earnings Decline: Nvidia shares fell 5% in after-hours trading following the earnings release, though the decline moderated as trading progressed. The reaction was attributed to Q4 revenue guidance seen as "light" against high expectations. The Nasdaq initial pared the late gains in the index, however as Nvidia recovered so did Nasdaq futures and we last trade just 0.10% lower.
Sector Impact: The broader tech sector experienced a spillover effect, with stocks like Palantir, Super Micro Computer, and Palo Alto Networks trading lower post-market.
Outlook for Nvidia: The stock remains a key pillar for the S&P 500, of the 76 analysts covering the stock on BBG, there are only 2 sell recommendations, with 6 holds and 68 buys however the consensus show just a modest projected 12-month target price increase to 158.90 (+8.9%).
• In recent months global bond market volatility has jumped, reflecting uncertainty around the Federal Reserve easing cycle and the US Election outcome, which delivered a red wave to the Republicans and may have strong implications for the fiscal/growth outlook in 2025. • Global bond markets are correlated to the US bond market to varying degrees, China's market remains a clear outlier though in Asia. • Other factors that drive Asian bond markets and influence their returns (and therefore impact changes in correlations) are supply and demand factors. • Still, even with expectations of higher supply, China government bond yields have remained very resilient. PBoC policy actions have been supportive, particularly at a time of lower foreign ownership. • In a global context though, Investing in China Government bonds is very lowly correlated to US Treasuries and hence global bond market volatility thereby providing a diversified return strategy for global investors when building portfolios.
South Korea's first 20-days trade data for Nov provide some comfort around the global trade outlook, although this is just one indicator. The first chart below overlays the daily average of the first 20-days of export growth (y/y) against global trade growth in y/y terms.
We may see some softening in global trade volumes in the first part of Q4, but the Nov export bounce in South Korea suggests it could be a shallow one. All else equal though a better South Korea export backdrop is typically a positive sign for global trade/growth momentum.
The detail on South Korean exports shows some slowing in vehicle exports, but semiconductor exports rose to 42.5%y/y, after y/y momentum eased in recent months from mid-year highs near 60%.
Taiwan export orders data, which printed late yesterday, showed a slightly better than expected result, rising 4.9% y/y, versus 3.8% forecast for Oct (we are still below earlier YTD highs above 10% for export orders).
Today's South Korea data also showed export growth to China running ahead of the US, see the second chart below. For a long period of time export growth to the US has been running at a faster clip.
This may reflect better growth signs given China stimulus measures. The US and trade outlook is quite uncertain as we progress into 2025 though, with the returning Trump administration generally seen as US growth positive but potentially quite trade negative.
Fig 1: South Korea First 20-days Exports & Global Trade Volumes - Y/Y
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
Fig 2: South Korea First 20-days Exports To China & The US - Y/Y
JGB futures are weaker, -14 compared to settlement levels.
Outside of the previously outlined weekly International Investment flows, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
BoJ Governor Ueda delivers remarks around 2:10pm local time. "Remarks by Governor UEDA at the Paris EUROPLACE Financial Forum 2024 in Tokyo" per the BoJ website.
Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off. Today in the US the focus will be on jobless claims and any pickup in activity in Ukraine/Russia.
Cash JGBs are little changed across benchmarks. The benchmark 20-year yield is 0.6bp higher at 1.900% after today’s supply.
The 20-year JGB auction delivered mixed results. While the low price missed dealer expectations, the cover ratio improved to 3.5233x from 3.0369x, and the auction tail shortened, indicating stronger demand. Today’s auction offered an outright yield 10bps higher than last month, despite the 10/20 yield curve remaining largely unchanged.
The swaps curve has bear-steepened, with rates 1bp lower to 3bps higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see National CPI and Jibun bank PMIs (P).
Offshore investors continued to buy local stocks last week, marking the eighth straight week of consecutive inflows into this space. Late Oct flows and through the first part of Nov have been running at a slower clip compared to the previous month though. Offshore investors also purchased local bonds last week, ended a modest run of outflows from the previous two weeks. Since the start of Oct we have had a ¥2.7trln in net inflows into this space.
In terms of Japan outbound flows, local investors returned to net sellers of offshore bonds last week. We have seen net selling in this segment in 6 out of the last 8 weeks. Better US data outcomes and the incoming Trump Presidency have dented global bond returns.
Local investors bought offshore shares for the first time the first week of Oct. The trend clearly remains toward selling down such holdings though.
ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -2.0) are holding weaker in tight ranges in today’s data-light Sydney session.
RBA Governor Bullock will give a speech at the Women In Payments Conference at 1900 AEST today.
“Westpac has become the second big bank to push its forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s first cash rate cut to May from February, as more economists and investors dump expectations for pre-election mortgage relief.” (per AFR)
Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off. Today in the US the focus will be on jobless claims and any pickup in activity in Ukraine/Russia.
Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +17bps.
Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -6.
RBA-dated OIS pricing shows no easing by year-end. A 25bps rate cut is not fully priced until August.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see S&P Global PMIs (P) alongside the AOFM’s planned sale of A$700mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond.
In 2024, there have been three notable episodes of reduced cross-market curve correlation between Australia and the U.S., each suggesting a focus on domestic rather than global or U.S.-centric drivers.
Each episode coincided with key Australian CPI releases. The first drop occurred in late April with the release of Q1 CPI data, while the second took place in late June, following the May Monthly CPI release.
Both the April and June declines were brief, as cross-market correlation between the AU 3/10 cash curve and the U.S. Treasury 2/10 curve quickly returned to the upper end of its annual range.
A third dip emerged in late September after the August Monthly CPI, though the cross-curve correlation has since rebounded to near its highest level this year, as ACGBs have been influenced by recent gains in U.S. yields.
While the Q3 CPI data released in late October did not shift the focus of curve dynamics to domestic factors, next Wednesday’s October CPI release presents another opportunity to do so.
Additionally, as global yield curve correlations tend to weaken during the transition from synchronised policy tightening to divergent easing cycles, the current elevated level of correlation appears unsustainable.
Figure 1: Rolling 10-day Correlation – ACGB 3/10 Curve Vs. US Tsy 2/10 Curve
NZGBs closed flat to 2bps cheaper after a subdued data-light session of dealings.
NZ Treasury said it would likely cut its economic and fiscal forecasts because of a sustained productivity slowdown in the economy. The May budget’s forecasts had anticipated a return to economic growth in the second half of 2024, but the latest data suggests the recovery will begin later, Treasury Chief Economic Adviser Dominick Stephens said in a speech. (per Reuters)
Today’s supply showed mixed results across the cash lines, with cover ratios ranging from 1.71x (May-32) to 4.17x (Apr-29).
Swap rates closed flat to 3bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
The case for another sizable RBNZ rate cut next week is almost as strong as it was in October and at present remains the “path of least regret,” according to ASB Bank. RBNZ will lower its OCR by a further 50bp to 4.25% on Nov. 27, bringing it closer to the more neutral level which is in a rough 3-4% range, economists Nick Tuffley and Mark Smith write in note.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps firmer. A cumulative 92bps of easing is priced by February, with 52bps by year-end.
The local calendar is light for the remainder of the week. The next key release will be Q3 Retail Sales ex Inflation on Monday.
The USD has spent the first part of Thursday's trade, giving back some of Wednesday's gains. At this stage, the BBDXY index is down around 0.15%, last near 1282. This comes after the index rose a little over 0.40% for Wednesday's session. G10 FX pairs remain firmly within recent ranges though.
Yen has outperformed the G10, albeit marginally. We are up 0.30% against the USD. This puts USD/JPY back near 155.00. The data calendar has just had weekly investment flows, while earlier reports crossed of the largest union urging the government to back wage rises, particularly at small firms.
The government is also set to pass a stimulus package, which has been well telegraphed but is slightly larger than last year's per onshore media (BBG).
BoJ Governor Ueda is set to speak later, but it remains unclear if the policy outlook will be covered. He is to speak at the Paris EUROPLACE Financial Forum 2024 in Tokyo around 2:10pm local time.
AUD/USD is up around 0.25%, last near 0.6520. NZD/USD is close to unchanged at the 0.5880 level. The AUD/NZD cross is tracking higher, last near 1.1090, close to recent highs.
In the cross asset space, US equity futures are down, led by tech (Nasdaq futures off around 0.40%). Some disappointment post Nvidia results (from late in Wednesday US trade) has weighed. This hasn't impacted higher beta FX though.
US yields sit down a touch, Fed speak has been mixed between hawks/doves in the past 24 hours.
Coming up, we have the RBA Governor speaking at 7pm AEDT, but at a payments conference so monetary policy may not be spoken about. Later on, we have the Philly Fed survey in the US, and initial jobless claims. Fed speak is also due, along with more ECB speak.
Equity markets are trading mostly lower today, following on from Nvidia's revenue forecast, which fell short of the highest expectations, dampening sentiment in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. In Asia, Japanese chipmakers like Advantest and Hoya led declines, pulling the Topix down 0.3% and the Nikkei 225 by 0.8%. TSMC and SK Hynix also saw losses, reflecting concerns about the AI boom slowing. In Australia, Nvidia’s earnings report weighed on tech and consumer discretionary shares, though energy and financials offered some support. Traders are also cautious ahead of BOJ Governor Ueda’s remarks, which could provide insights into the central bank's policy direction. Meanwhile, geopolitical and legal developments, including the Adani bribery charges, are adding to market uncertainty.
Hong Kong & China equities are trading in narrow ranges today, although most major benchmarks are pointing to small losses so far. The HSI is -0.20%, while the CSI 300 is -0.15%.
Foreign investors have been slightly better sellers of Korean equities today, with a net outflow of $65m, most of that coming from the tech sector. The KOSPI is 0.15% higher, as Samsung trades up 0.75%, while the KOSDAQ trades 0.45% lower.
US equity futures are trading lower, with the Nasdaq leading losses, last down 0.45%.
South Korea: South Korean equities saw outflows of $193m yesterday, contributing to a net outflow of $638m over the past five trading days. South Korean equities have fared better than Taiwan's although have been dragged down with the wider sell-off in the tech space after the Biden Administration said they'd considered tougher trade restrictions on companies providing AI and semiconductor tech to China. The 5-day average outflow is $128m, significantly lower than the 20-day average inflow of $113m and the 100-day average inflow of $118m. Year-to-date, South Korea has experienced substantial inflows totaling $19.213b.
Taiwan: Foreign investors continue to heavily sell Taiwanese equities with a significant outflow of $1.788b yesterday, this has resulted in a net outflow of $4.601b over the past five trading days. These large outflows are linked to Trump announcing that they should pay for US protection from China, with those comments cast doubts over whether the US would protect Taiwan, he also mentioned that Taiwan had taken all of the American semiconductor industry, with the market viewing this as growing concern he would impose tariffs or trade restrictions on them if he get in power. The 5-day average outflow is $920m, considerably lower than the 20-day average outflow of $400m and the 100-day average outflow of $50m. The heavy selling over the past week and seen all yearly inflows erased and now sits at a ytd outflow of $943m.
India: Indian equities saw inflows of $199m yesterday, contributing to a net inflow of $1.544b over the past five trading days. Foreign investors have been strong buyers of Indian equities post the Indian Election in early June, with just two days of outflows. The 5-day average inflow is $309m, higher than the 20-day average inflow of $303m but below the 100-day average outflow of $41m. Year-to-date, India has experienced inflows totaling $3.243b.
Indonesia: Indonesian equities recorded inflows of $72m yesterday, resulting in a net inflow of $118m over the past five trading days. This was the largest inflow since June 13th. The 5-day average outflow is $24m, below the 20-day average inflow of $20m and the 100-day average outflow of $8m. Year-to-date, Indonesia has experienced outflows totaling $127m.
Thailand: Thai equities saw inflows of $36m yesterday, contributing to a net inflow of $41m over the past five trading days. The Thai SET is one of the worst performing equity markets in the region this year, as CPI crashed from a high of 8% in mid 2022 to -1% earlier this year, the Government have been calling for interest rate cuts although the BoT has held steady with more members voting to keep rates on hold than prior in June. The 5-day average inflow is $8m, better than the 20-day average outflow of $17m and the 100-day average outflow of $24m. Year-to-date, Thailand has seen significant outflows amounting to $3.299b.
Malaysia: Malaysian equities experienced inflows of $5m yesterday, contributing to a 5-day net inflow of $139m. We have now since 14 straight session on inflows into the region, while the Malay Bursa KLCI Index hit multi-year highs. The 5-day average inflow is $28m, higher than the 20-day average inflow of $10m and the 100-day average outflow of $2m. Year-to-date, Malaysia has experienced inflows totaling $152m.
Philippines: Philippine equities saw inflows of $7m yesterday, with a 5-day net inflow of $27.7m. Flows in the region have been muted recently with no real trend emerging. The 5-day average inflow is $6m, better than the 20-day average inflow of $0m and the 100-day average outflow of $7m. Year-to-date, the Philippines has seen outflows totaling $495m.
Oil prices lost ground overnight as concerns as to an escalation in Ukraine were overshadowed by a jump in US inventories.
US crude inventories rose 4.8m barrels last week and gasoline 2.05m barrels.
This damped the prospects for oil which had been alert to the news of the use of US and UK made missiles used by Ukraine on Russia.
WTI peaked at US$70.15 during the US trading day, finishing the day at $68.87 following the inventory report. It has opened in Asian trading a touch firmer at $69.04 before trading down to $68.90.
Brent had peaked at US$73.94 during the US trading day only to finish at $73.30 and has traded around $72.92 / $72.98 for most of the day.
The inventory story and its impact on prices should remain temporary as Russia’s veiled threats for nuclear retaliation remain prominent for investors.
In the Middle East efforts remain ongoing to find a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel as Joe Biden’s time as US President comes to an end.
In the options markets, the premiums for bullish call options over bearish put options in Brent futures has disappeared at time where the additional risk premium that oil futures have had embedded in them (due to war-related supply issues), has all but disappeared since Trump’s election.
Data released from China customs yesterday show that Malaysia has replaced Saudi Arabia as China’s second largest supplier of oil, behind Russia.
Gold is steady in today’s Asia-Pac session, after closing 0.7% higher at $2650.60 on Wednesday, a third consecutive session of gains.
The move came amid a further increase in geopolitical tensions as Ukraine launched another long-range missile attack on Russia.
Despite the heightened geopolitical risk, analysts at Standard Chartered believe that macro factors, including the US dollar and rate-cut expectations, are likely to set the tone in the near term.
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said that more interest-rate cuts were needed, but policymakers should proceed carefully to avoid moving too quickly or too slowly.
Lower rates are typically positive for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.
According to MNI’s technicals team, the long-term trend condition in gold remains bullish, with the yellow metal piercing the 20-day EMA at $2,651.3 today.
A clear break above it would highlight a possible reversal and signal the end of the recent bearish corrective cycle, opening $2,710.4, the Nov 11 high.
The RBI considers its job is “not finished” till inflation settles around its target of 4% on a durable basis, Governor said Thursday (source: BBG).
The slack in speed of economic activities observed in the second quarter of the current financial year is "behind us," according to the RBI November bulletin (source: BBG).
India’s NIFTY 50 has opened Thursday very weak, down -0.75%.
INR – Rupee remains very stable at present trading around 84.43.
Bonds:having moved marginally lower in yield yesterday, India’s 10-year government bond edged up in yield 1bp this morning to 6.855%.
China's Stock Buyback Loan Program Reaches USD4.9 Billion in a Month (source:BBG).
Aluminium Climbs With Chinese Plants Seen Front-Loading Exports ahead of tax changes (source:BBG).
Despite the news that the take up for the stock buyback has been strong, all major indices were down today – Hang Seng (-0.13%), CSI300 (-0.22%), Shanghai Comp (-0.10%) Shenzhen (-0.05%).
CNY - PBOC set its daily reference rate for the yuan stronger than estimates at 7.1935 per dollar, The average forecast in a BBG survey was 7.2374
Bonds – CGB 10 year yields drifted modestly lower to 2.087%.
Bank Indonesia (“BI”) kept rates on hold yesterday at 6.00% overnight with I Governor Warjiyo indicated in his press conference that given the Bank’s focus on maintaining currency stability, the prospects of further cuts has now narrowed (source: MNI – Market News).
Indonesia’s current account deficit narrowed in the third quarter to US$2.15bn, significantly below economists’ estimates of US$2.948bn. (source: MNI – Market News).
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite was up today, marking only fifth positive day this month, rising +0.25%
IDR : the currency saw significant weakness following the BI’s hold, weaker by -0.50% to be the worst performer of its Asian peers today.
Bonds: yields across all maturities were higher today with the 5 year the biggest underperformer up +4bp to 6.754% and the 10 year up 3bps to 6.929%.
In North East Asia, USD trends are mixed. USD/CNH is little changed, last near 7.2490. The pair hasn't seen much downside despite a softer tone for the USD against the majors (particularly the yen).
The USD/CNY fixing error widened to fresh wides going back to early August. The print on the fixing remains sub 7.2000 at this stage. 1 month implied vol for USD/CNH continues to track lower, last near 4.7%. The market is not expecting fireworks before year end and before the new Trump Administration is in power. 6 month implied vols sit more elevated relative to 2024 averages, last near 6.3%.
Local equities are down a touch at the break.
For spot USD/KRW we sit back under the 1400 level, last near 1398, around 0.20% stronger in won terms. Earlier data showed a better export backdrop for the first 20-days in Nov. This is a marginal positive for the won but not a trend changer. Local equities are also higher, up nearly 0.35% at this stage.
Spot USD/TWD is higher, last up 0.20% to 32.575. We are closing back in on recent Nov highs, at 32.61. The Nvidia result has weighed on US tech futures at the margin, which may be seeing some negative spill over for local stocks (Taiex last down 0.60%).
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date
GMT/Local
Impact
Country
Event
21/11/2024
0700/0700
***
GB
Public Sector Finances
21/11/2024
0745/0845
**
FR
Manufacturing Sentiment
21/11/2024
0830/0930
EU
ECB's Cipollone at ECRB meeting
21/11/2024
1100/0600
***
TR
Turkey Benchmark Rate
21/11/2024
1100/1100
**
GB
CBI Industrial Trends
21/11/2024
1330/0830
***
US
Jobless Claims
21/11/2024
1330/0830
*
CA
Industrial Product and Raw Material Price Index
21/11/2024
1330/0830
**
US
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
21/11/2024
1330/0830
**
US
WASDE Weekly Import/Export
21/11/2024
1345/0845
US
Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack
21/11/2024
1400/1400
GB
BOE Mann fireside chat with Brown Brothers Harriman
21/11/2024
1500/1600
**
EU
Consumer Confidence Indicator (p)
21/11/2024
1500/1000
***
US
NAR existing home sales
21/11/2024
1500/1000
*
US
Services Revenues
21/11/2024
1530/1030
**
US
Natural Gas Stocks
21/11/2024
1530/1630
EU
ECB's Lane in panel on macroeconomic effects of geopolitical uncertainty
21/11/2024
1530/1630
EU
ECB's Elderson at the University of Cyprus
21/11/2024
1600/1100
**
US
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
21/11/2024
1630/1130
*
US
US Bill 08 Week Treasury Auction Result
21/11/2024
1630/1130
**
US
US Bill 04 Week Treasury Auction Result
21/11/2024
1730/1230
US
Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
21/11/2024
1730/1230
US
Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid
21/11/2024
1800/1300
**
US
US Treasury Auction Result for TIPS 10 Year Note
21/11/2024
2140/1640
US
Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr
22/11/2024
2200/0900
***
AU
Judo Bank Flash Australia PMI
22/11/2024
2330/0830
***
JP
CPI
22/11/2024
0001/0001
**
GB
Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence
22/11/2024
0030/0930
**
JP
Jibun Bank Flash Japan PMI
22/11/2024
0700/0800
***
DE
GDP (f)
22/11/2024
0700/0700
***
GB
Retail Sales
22/11/2024
0815/0915
**
FR
S&P Global Services PMI (p)
22/11/2024
0815/0915
**
FR
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
22/11/2024
0830/0930
**
DE
S&P Global Services PMI (p)
22/11/2024
0830/0930
**
DE
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
22/11/2024
0830/0930
EU
ECB's Lagarde on Europe and New World Order
22/11/2024
0840/0940
EU
ECB's De Guindos at Foro Observatorio Económico
22/11/2024
0900/1000
**
EU
S&P Global Services PMI (p)
22/11/2024
0900/1000
**
EU
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (p)
22/11/2024
0900/1000
**
EU
S&P Global Composite PMI (p)
22/11/2024
0930/0930
***
GB
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash
22/11/2024
0930/0930
***
GB
S&P Global Services PMI flash
22/11/2024
0930/0930
***
GB
S&P Global Composite PMI flash
22/11/2024
1330/0830
**
CA
Retail Trade
22/11/2024
1330/0830
**
CA
Retail Trade
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