DBS On India Election

The Singapore Bank weighs in on the upcoming election.

DBS: "Ahead of the first round of polling (which starts on Apr 19), the two main political groups – the ruling party, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Indian National Congress (INC) tabled their election manifestos in the past week. The pre-election opinion polls continue to point towards an overwhelming win for the incumbent coalition led by the BJP. The debate has seemingly shifted away from whether the ruling party will win, to the to the margin with which the party might extend its lead vs 2019 (303 seats).

BJP’s manifesto: Continuity over Big Bang

The manifesto highlighted the work done by the government in the past decade of being in power. Besides reiterating that previous poll promises (for instance, the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya) have been achieved, forward-looking plans are to introduce ‘One nation, One Election’ by 2029, besides pursuing the Uniform Civil Code.

Similar to the pre-poll interim Budget, where the ruling central government prioritised prudence over populism (Budget), the manifesto signalled a continuation of existing reforms and social welfare schemes rather than lean towards new big-bang promises, which could carry significant fiscal costs. The ‘Modi’s Guarantee’ document highlighted macro and financial stability as priorities, marked by low inflation, strong external balances, high growth, and fiscal prudence."