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Death Of Iranian President Only Provides Modest Support For Energy Benchmarks

COMMODITIES
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We only saw relatively modest upticks in both crude oil and TTF futures to start the week, with the death of the Iranian President only providing some light demand.

  • There haven’t been any meaningful accusations from Iran towards Israel when it comes to the helicopter crash that killed the Iranian President.
  • Meanwhile, source reports covering comments from Israeli officials have pushed back against the idea that Israel was involved in the incident.
  • That limits the market reaction at this time, with oil futures back to little changed on the day.
  • Our commodities team notes that the marginal extension higher in crude prices comes amid geopolitical risks in producing countries of Russian and the Middle East, while the market waits for clarity of future OPEC+ output. Improved economic indicators from the U.S. and China helped support crude last week towards the high end of the monthly range.
  • Despite the latest move higher, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective.
  • The contract has recently traded below the 50-day EMA, strengthening a bearish set-up. Scope is seen for a move to the Mar 11 low ($76.07). Key resistance/the bull trigger is seen at the Apr 12 high ($86.97).
  • For gas, TTF futures have traded through the high of last week with support from the aforementioned geopolitical risks and with Norway supply outages due this week. Elsewhere, LNG supply risks in Asia add to worry surrounding global competition for the fuel.
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We only saw relatively modest upticks in both crude oil and TTF futures to start the week, with the death of the Iranian President only providing some light demand.

  • There haven’t been any meaningful accusations from Iran towards Israel when it comes to the helicopter crash that killed the Iranian President.
  • Meanwhile, source reports covering comments from Israeli officials have pushed back against the idea that Israel was involved in the incident.
  • That limits the market reaction at this time, with oil futures back to little changed on the day.
  • Our commodities team notes that the marginal extension higher in crude prices comes amid geopolitical risks in producing countries of Russian and the Middle East, while the market waits for clarity of future OPEC+ output. Improved economic indicators from the U.S. and China helped support crude last week towards the high end of the monthly range.
  • Despite the latest move higher, a bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective.
  • The contract has recently traded below the 50-day EMA, strengthening a bearish set-up. Scope is seen for a move to the Mar 11 low ($76.07). Key resistance/the bull trigger is seen at the Apr 12 high ($86.97).
  • For gas, TTF futures have traded through the high of last week with support from the aforementioned geopolitical risks and with Norway supply outages due this week. Elsewhere, LNG supply risks in Asia add to worry surrounding global competition for the fuel.