MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, April 26

MNI BRIEF: China, US Should Strengthen Dialogue, Cooperation

MNI BRIEF: SNB Framework Reform 'Playing With Fire' - Steiner

MNI: PBOC Conducts CNY2 Bln Via OMO Fri; Liquidity Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

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MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 613; OIL RIGS 506; GAS RIGS 105

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL APR INDEX 77.2

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

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Dec 50bp Hike Locked In, But On The Fence For Feb FOMC

STIR FUTURES

Checking on Fed OIS-implied hike pricing pre-Nov payrolls (0830ET), a December 50bp FOMC hike is all but locked in (94% probability).

  • Peak pricing has settled about 20bp below where it was before Powell's appearance Wednesday, with the ISM and PCE numbers yesterday helping corroborate the dovish narrative.
  • The terminal 4.84% for May 2023 is down 2bp overnight and the lowest since the mid-Nov, post-CPI data lows.
  • That's about 100bp of implied further hikes in this cycle, or 50bp beyond Dec.
  • Today's payrolls data will be relatively more impactful on Feb pricing as opposed to Dec: it's leaning a little higher than 50% probability of a 50bp as opposed to further step-down to a 25bp hike.
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