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Dec CPI & PPI On Tap Tomorrow

CHINA DATA

(MNI Australia) China Dec CPI and PPI print tomorrow. The market expects CPI to pick up to 1.8% y/y from 1.6% prior (forecast range is 1.4% to 2.2%). PPI disinflation is expected to moderate to -0.1% y/y from -1.3% prior (forecast range is -1.7% to 0.8%).

  • Services related inflation likely remained under pressure/benign given the spike in domestic covid cases in the month and dampening of related activity/spending. This was suggested by the weaker official services PMI print for the month (although the Caixin services PMI was more resilient).
  • This should keep the core inflation trend quite modest with the prior 3 months showing a 0.60% y/y outcome.
  • Headline price pressures may be more influenced by food prices, although they looked more modest in December compared to November.
  • The PPI rebound is largely expected to reflect base effects.
  • Whilst the data is backward looking, particularly post the shift from CZS. However, with some onshore analysts, as reported by the Securities Journal today, still looking for easier policy settings (RRR and rate cuts) this year, tomorrow's data can still be informative from that standpoint.
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