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December CPI Data In Focus, Seen Rising to 5.41% Y/y

COLOMBIA
  • Inflation likely edged higher to 5.41% in December from 5.26% in November. Non-core inflation probably increased from 10.74%.
  • Food inflation is likely to increase from 15.3% prior. Base effects suggest food inflation may be close to its peak and could start moderating in January. Regulated inflation may fall from 6.56% in November.
  • Bloomberg see core services inflation likely rising from November’s 2.07% due to recovering services demand consistent with fewer lockdowns.
  • Core goods inflation is likely to fall after jumping to 3.79% in November. Base effects are the main factor, due to the value-added tax exemption during one day in the month; the effect should reverse in January. Lingering pressure from supply shortages, global inflation and accumulated currency depreciation limits the decline.
    • 0000GMT/1900ET: Colombia Dec. CPI Y/y, est. 5.41%, prior 5.26%; M/m est. 0.53%, prior 0.50%
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