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EUROPEAN INFLATION: December EZ HICP Y/Y In Line W/ Cons; Services Back at 4%

EUROPEAN INFLATION
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Eurozone December flash headline, on a rounded basis, came in in line with consensus at 2.4% Y/Y (2.4% cons; 2.2% prior). After the already-published national releases out (particularly Germany) there was a risk of a 2.5% print. However, Italy data came in below consensus at 1.4% Y/Y vs 1.6%Y/Y expected and this likely brought us back to the 2.4%Y/Y print.

  • On a monthly basis, inflation came in at 0.4% (vs 0.4% cons; -0.3% prior).
  • On an unrounded basis, headline HICP was 2.44% Y/Y and 0.36% M/M.
  • Core HICP also printed in line with consensus, at 2.7% Y/Y (2.7% cons and prior; unrounded: 2.71% Y/Y, 0.45% M/M).
  • Looking at the individual categories:
    • Energy moved into positive territory for the first time since July, at +0.1% Y/Y (-2.0% Nov, -6.1% Sep) on the back of both a 0.6% sequential increase and base effects.
    • Services inflation increased slightly, remaining sticky, at 4.0% Y/Y (3.9% prior). It has remained around the 4% level for over a year now.
    • Non-energy industrial goods inflation decreased slightly, to 0.5% Y/Y, remaining overall soft (vs +0.6% Oct).
    • Food, alcohol and tobacco inflation meanwhile remained unchanged at 2.7%.
  • Looking at the national-level prints, headline HICP inflation remained stable or accelerated in all but 4 countries in December (Greece, Italy, Malta, Slovakia).
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Eurozone December flash headline, on a rounded basis, came in in line with consensus at 2.4% Y/Y (2.4% cons; 2.2% prior). After the already-published national releases out (particularly Germany) there was a risk of a 2.5% print. However, Italy data came in below consensus at 1.4% Y/Y vs 1.6%Y/Y expected and this likely brought us back to the 2.4%Y/Y print.

  • On a monthly basis, inflation came in at 0.4% (vs 0.4% cons; -0.3% prior).
  • On an unrounded basis, headline HICP was 2.44% Y/Y and 0.36% M/M.
  • Core HICP also printed in line with consensus, at 2.7% Y/Y (2.7% cons and prior; unrounded: 2.71% Y/Y, 0.45% M/M).
  • Looking at the individual categories:
    • Energy moved into positive territory for the first time since July, at +0.1% Y/Y (-2.0% Nov, -6.1% Sep) on the back of both a 0.6% sequential increase and base effects.
    • Services inflation increased slightly, remaining sticky, at 4.0% Y/Y (3.9% prior). It has remained around the 4% level for over a year now.
    • Non-energy industrial goods inflation decreased slightly, to 0.5% Y/Y, remaining overall soft (vs +0.6% Oct).
    • Food, alcohol and tobacco inflation meanwhile remained unchanged at 2.7%.
  • Looking at the national-level prints, headline HICP inflation remained stable or accelerated in all but 4 countries in December (Greece, Italy, Malta, Slovakia).