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AUSTRALIA DATA: December Inflation Expectations Rise But Q4 Lower

AUSTRALIA DATA
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The Melbourne-Institute’s measure of consumer inflation expectations picked up to 4.2%, the highest since September. In November it fell to 3.8%, below 4% for the first time since August 2021. Looking through the volatility, the Q4 average eased 0.4pp to 4.0%, which is good news and consistent with the RBA “gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining”. The pickup in petrol prices since end-November likely boosted expectations. Also, Westpac reported in December that news on inflation continues to dominate consumers’ recall with their assessments improving “only slightly”. November CPI prints on January 8 and December/Q4 on January 29.

Australia quarterly trimmed mean CPI y/y% vs MI consumer inflation expectations

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The Melbourne-Institute’s measure of consumer inflation expectations picked up to 4.2%, the highest since September. In November it fell to 3.8%, below 4% for the first time since August 2021. Looking through the volatility, the Q4 average eased 0.4pp to 4.0%, which is good news and consistent with the RBA “gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining”. The pickup in petrol prices since end-November likely boosted expectations. Also, Westpac reported in December that news on inflation continues to dominate consumers’ recall with their assessments improving “only slightly”. November CPI prints on January 8 and December/Q4 on January 29.

Australia quarterly trimmed mean CPI y/y% vs MI consumer inflation expectations

Keep reading...Show less