August 03, 2022 15:08 GMT
markets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletBulletMarketsFixed IncomeForeign ExchangePolitical Market News
The latest data from Predicit shows betting markets placing Democrats as favourites to retain control of the Senate after the November midterms after trailing for some time.
- The data shows political bettors assigning an effective implied probability of 53% that the Democrats retain control of the Senate, to 49% that the Republicans will take hold of the chamber (total adds to more than 100% as the price/implied probability assigned to each potential outcome is a reflection only of the most recent trade in that contract, meaning the sum of all prices can be higher or lower than $1/100%, especially if prices have been changing rapidly).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Post-Midterm Senate Control, %
- Yesterday's vote on reproductive rights in Kansas appears to have acted as a spur for bettors to back the Democrats to maintain the 50-50 status of the Senate or even win an outright majority.
- Republicans still strong favourites to win control of the House, with an 84%-18% implied probability of taking the Speaker's gavel from the Democrats.
Keep reading...Show less