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Democrats Overtake GOP In Race For Senate In Betting Markets

US

The latest data from Predicit shows betting markets placing Democrats as favourites to retain control of the Senate after the November midterms after trailing for some time.

  • The data shows political bettors assigning an effective implied probability of 53% that the Democrats retain control of the Senate, to 49% that the Republicans will take hold of the chamber (total adds to more than 100% as the price/implied probability assigned to each potential outcome is a reflection only of the most recent trade in that contract, meaning the sum of all prices can be higher or lower than $1/100%, especially if prices have been changing rapidly).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Post-Midterm Senate Control, %

Source: Predictit

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The latest data from Predicit shows betting markets placing Democrats as favourites to retain control of the Senate after the November midterms after trailing for some time.

  • The data shows political bettors assigning an effective implied probability of 53% that the Democrats retain control of the Senate, to 49% that the Republicans will take hold of the chamber (total adds to more than 100% as the price/implied probability assigned to each potential outcome is a reflection only of the most recent trade in that contract, meaning the sum of all prices can be higher or lower than $1/100%, especially if prices have been changing rapidly).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Post-Midterm Senate Control, %

Source: Predictit

Keep reading...Show less