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Dep PM Kaczynski Resigns To Focus On PiS Election Campaign

POLAND

Deputy Prime Minister and National Security Chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski has announced that he is stepping down from his roles in order to focus on the election campaign in 2023 for his governing right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS).

  • While not having served as PM since 2007, Kaczynski is still viewed as the key power broker and decision maker within the governing PiS and its broader electoral alliance, the United Right (ZP).
  • The United Right has not held a majority in the lower house of parliament, the Sejm, since the withdrawal of coalition partner the Agreement Party in August 2021, meaning a snap election could come about with little notice.
  • The next legislative elections have to be held by November 2023 at the latest. Current opinion polls show the United Right leading all other parties, but below the level of support achieved in the 2019 election when the party won a very narrow majority.
  • The United Right will be seeking its third consecutive term in office during a period in which Warsaw and Brussels have experienced a sharp deterioration in relations following reforms to Poland's judiciary and media landscape that the EU has criticised for breaching its rule of law standards.
  • ZP could find itself in difficulty if it does not win a majority. Most other parties disinclined to work with PiS, meaning the centrist Civic Coalition of former PM and EUCO President Donald Tusk could form a governing coalition even as the second-largest party.
Chart 1. Poland General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: IBRIS, Social Changes, Kantar, Research Partner, Pollster, United Surveys, Estymator, CBOS, IPSOS, MNI

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Deputy Prime Minister and National Security Chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski has announced that he is stepping down from his roles in order to focus on the election campaign in 2023 for his governing right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS).

  • While not having served as PM since 2007, Kaczynski is still viewed as the key power broker and decision maker within the governing PiS and its broader electoral alliance, the United Right (ZP).
  • The United Right has not held a majority in the lower house of parliament, the Sejm, since the withdrawal of coalition partner the Agreement Party in August 2021, meaning a snap election could come about with little notice.
  • The next legislative elections have to be held by November 2023 at the latest. Current opinion polls show the United Right leading all other parties, but below the level of support achieved in the 2019 election when the party won a very narrow majority.
  • The United Right will be seeking its third consecutive term in office during a period in which Warsaw and Brussels have experienced a sharp deterioration in relations following reforms to Poland's judiciary and media landscape that the EU has criticised for breaching its rule of law standards.
  • ZP could find itself in difficulty if it does not win a majority. Most other parties disinclined to work with PiS, meaning the centrist Civic Coalition of former PM and EUCO President Donald Tusk could form a governing coalition even as the second-largest party.
Chart 1. Poland General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: IBRIS, Social Changes, Kantar, Research Partner, Pollster, United Surveys, Estymator, CBOS, IPSOS, MNI