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Deutsche Bank Ahead Of Tomorrow’s Banxico Minutes

MEXICO
  • Deutsche Bank say the Banxico minutes will be helpful in assessing the risks to their current base case scenario which expects an additional (and very likely final) 25bp hike in May.
  • The tone of the minutes is likely to be less hawkish than those of the previous meeting given both the smaller adjustments to Banxico's base case scenario as well as the change in forward guidance which no longer mentions an upcoming interest rate hike.
  • In their view, the tone of the post meeting statement seemed relatively moderate as rather than focusing on the recent improvement of the headline inflation print, it also mentioned the persistent pressure on core prices and especially those of services.
  • DB will look for hints as to what are the factors that in the board's view still maintain the balance of risks to inflation tilted to the upside. The discussion around the changes in forward guidance will also be interesting as it will help them better assess the likelihood of the cycle ending with the current 11.25% overnight rate or once it reaches 11.50%.
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