MNI BRIEF: US Treasuries Seen Increasingly Risky-JH Paper

MNI: FED’S POWELL: TIME HAS COME FOR POLICY TO ADJUST

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, Aug 23

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY241.5 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1358 Fri; +2.17% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY379.3 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS FRI

MNI: US JUL NEW HOME SALES +10.6% TO 0.739M SAAR

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EFSF RfP Sent, EU-Bonds Due Monday

MNI: CANADIAN JUN RETAIL SALES -0.3%; SALES EX-AUTOS/PARTS +0.3%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Deutsche Bank looks for terminal rate at 1.25% rather than 1.00%

BOE
  • Deutsche Bank looks for a unanimous vote for a 25bp hike in February along with a confirmation that there would be no further QE reinvestments following the meeting.
  • Expect 4 messages from the MPC next week:
    1. "Omicron will likely delay normalisation adding uncertainty to the near-term path of inflation and labour market recovery"
    2. "Inflation expectations are edging up – but still remain broadly anchored, with two-sided risks still in the outlook."
    3. "The Bank's forecasts should show a clear trade-off between high inflation and low growth"
    4. "Forward guidance to reiterate that some 'modest' tightening is still warranted over the forecast horizon."
  • Deutsche Bank has brought forward its expectation of the next 25bp hike to August (from November) but continues to see Bank Rate at 0.75% at end-2022. It then expects further 25bp hikes in Feb-23 and Aug-23 to 1.25% by end-2023 (previously Deutsche had expected 1.00%). Deutsche notes that this change is because of "inflation rising further and remaining more persistent"
  • "We also expect discussions around active QT to gather momentum over the next few months. While not our base case at the stage, a slightly more aggressive wind down of the Bank's balance sheet should not be discounted when the Bank Rate reaches 1% – something markets think could happen as early as around summer time this year. We will be looking at this in more detail shortly."
HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.