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Deutsche Bank Up ECB Terminal Rate View

ECB VIEW
  • Deutsche Bank ECB call: they raise their terminal rate view to 3.75% from 3.25% previously.
  • They write that their new baseline has 50bp hikes at both the March and May meetings followed by a final hike of 25bp in June. The view change comes as the euro area economy has momentum and a robust decline in underlying inflation will take time to prove convincingly. Additionally, recent Governing Council commentary has proved hawkish relative to their former base view.
  • They conclude that as the terminal rate rises, the drag from monetary tightening in late 2023/early 2024 also rises. Together with the headwind from US recession, euro area growth should slow meaningfully. If bank credit fails to recover into the spring, it may indicate that monetary tightening is having a larger and/or more rapid impact than expected and caution the ECB.
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