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Policy
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessDeutsche Bank Up ECB Terminal Rate View
- Deutsche Bank ECB call: they raise their terminal rate view to 3.75% from 3.25% previously.
- They write that their new baseline has 50bp hikes at both the March and May meetings followed by a final hike of 25bp in June. The view change comes as the euro area economy has momentum and a robust decline in underlying inflation will take time to prove convincingly. Additionally, recent Governing Council commentary has proved hawkish relative to their former base view.
- They conclude that as the terminal rate rises, the drag from monetary tightening in late 2023/early 2024 also rises. Together with the headwind from US recession, euro area growth should slow meaningfully. If bank credit fails to recover into the spring, it may indicate that monetary tightening is having a larger and/or more rapid impact than expected and caution the ECB.
To read the full story
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.