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Deutsche Bank View Following the BOE MPR

BOE
  • Deutsche Bank notes that "the MPC put an end to the negative rates discussion - at least for now"
  • "Optimistic forecasts will likely lead to a more dovish MPC later this year… While the Bank sees growth returning to its previrus levels by late next year, we think growth is likely to return to its Q4-2019 levels some time in H2-2024, prompting further stimulus."
  • Deutsche believes "forward guidance and QE are the key policy levers" and that "a dovish MPC later this year doesn't mean negative rates… while the likelihood of negative rates in the near term may have dropped considerably, it still remains a part of the Bank's toolkit"
  • Deutsche Bank expects "more QE later this year as downside risks crystalise, relative to the Bank's more optimistic H2-2020 forecasts…we stick to our base case of GBP 60bn in December."
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